Key point on the German elections today: how many parties beat the 5% threshold. That will decide what kind of coalition is possible given no one will work with the AFD. - ThreadSky

samfr.bsky.social • 10 hours ago

Key point on the German elections today: how many parties beat the 5% threshold. That will decide what kind of coalition is possible given no one will work with the AFD.

Reposted from Jon Worth

SZ on possible coalitions post-election

If a 6th party - either BSW or FDP - gets into the Bundestag, a 3 party coalition is likely necessary. And that’s going to be a mess

archive.is/1HZfK

Comments

andrewjmulholland.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Any way of keeping Pistorius in the govt would be good. Maybe not Scholz though…

gunnarlott.bsky.social•10 hours ago

If that still holds after the election. I can totally see Merz inviting the AfD (if it finishes second) and calling it the ‘will of the people’ to form a government of the two strongest parties.

barneybarney.bsky.social•6 hours ago

5% is still too much for the FDP

danielrembrandt.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Another key point is measuring the final AfD result against their peak polling in the last 3 months and how much Elon Musk’s direct support for the AfD dragged them down.

jirzi.bsky.social•10 hours ago

I’m not sure about the last part Sam. For the first time as a German I am afraid. The CDU leadership is both full of its own importance, shortsighted and tempted by populist shortcuts. They may lack the patience coalition building calls for. In short - they may renege on that promise.

samfr.bsky.social•10 hours ago

I would be astonished. I can just about imagine a minority government with tacit AFD support but not a coalition.

gunnarlott.bsky.social•9 hours ago

That depends on what AfD regards as a victory. If they see a CDU puppet regime as a valid road to AfD chancellorship, they might give CDU that option. But if they go hard for a sharing of power now (with the threat of branding Merz a traitor and a leftist) will unstable Mr Merz be steadfast?

jirzi.bsky.social•10 hours ago

I’d be horrified. Yesterday an ex-senior judge revealed he consulted the Wahl-O-Mat: questions revealing the party closest to your preferences. He got scores of 71 for CDU & AfD. He was not happy. The parties are aligned on many issues. The temptation of min govt may be too big -it would not last.

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