As some of you will recall, in my Nature commentary in March I suggested that we would need to see the data in August before we'd (likely) be able to see whether or not temperatures in 2023 were 'blips' or a sustained change. We are not yet done w/August, but I have updated my 'expectation' graph. - ThreadSky

climateofgavin.bsky.social • 205 days ago

As some of you will recall, in my Nature commentary in March I suggested that we would need to see the data in August before we'd (likely) be able to see whether or not temperatures in 2023 were 'blips' or a sustained change. We are not yet done w/August, but I have updated my 'expectation' graph.

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climateofgavin.bsky.social•205 days ago

The bottom line is that 2024 temps are much more in line w/expectations than 2023, lending more weight to the notion that 2023 was more blip-like. However, the accounting for recent temperatures is still ongoing. Blog post keeping track of new studies is here: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/05/new-journal-nature-2023/

umsonst.bsky.social•203 days ago

Just for the record: in 2023 the terrestrial carbon sink could have collapsed with current CO2 increases strengthening the argument made by this study: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447

umsonst.bsky.social•203 days ago

A jump by ~0.4°C in 12 M is hardly a blip, but a massive thermodynamic blow into the system. No wonder that weather turned nuts the last months. And as temp. jumps growth in size like the last one was a stark reminder, already the next one could become critical in terms of Earth system change...

rjmhudson.bsky.social•205 days ago

Can you project roughly how much temp will decrease in the near future (2025ish) under La Nina or neutral conditions?

climateofgavin.bsky.social•205 days ago

it's roughly 0.06ºC per unit of Feb/Mar Nino34 change in the annual mean. So if we get a mild La Niña, you'd expect 0.06ºC down from the trend (which is ~0.02ºC/yr), and perhaps ~0.14ºC lower than 2024 (which had a F/M Nino34 ~ +1.3). Plus or minus something of course.

rjmhudson.bsky.social•205 days ago

So next year will likely be cooler? I'm wondering how people would react to seeing such a prediction. Would putting that out pre-but the "climate is always changing" crowd?

climateofgavin.bsky.social•205 days ago

Yes. There will be some ‘global cooling!’ nonsense but most folks i think understand that you can have ups and downs around a long term trend.

pukite.com•205 days ago

The AMO is showing something different. The spike of last year appears to not to have abated. See the inset overlaid on the larger span. Mid 2024 nearly the same as latter part of 2023.

rjmhudson.bsky.social•205 days ago

If I understand you, there's still an unexplained anomaly in 2023, but we seem to be back on trend. Is that the ~ linear trend since 1970? Can you say yet whether there's been "acceleration" or not?

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