Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100% RE Last 185 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5) - ThreadSky

davidosmond.bsky.social • 9 days ago

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 185 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

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jon-solis.bsky.social•9 days ago

Since the shortfalls in this and your last sim post occur outside of solar hours it seems like a better balance would be to increase the wind scaling factor and drop the solar one back slightly?

davidosmond.bsky.social•9 days ago

I discus the optimal mix in this article. The 60:45 wind:solar ratio is still pretty close to optimal, but it is likely to move slowly towards more solar as pv and batteries continue to fall in cost faster than wind.

davidosmond.bsky.social•9 days ago

Sorry, article here
https://bsky.app/profile/davidosmond.bsky.social/post/3lk5jrku3ak2l

davidosmond.bsky.social•9 days ago

Last week had:
- well above average demand (106% of long-term average)
- well above average wind (129%)
- average solar (104%) (2/5)

davidosmond.bsky.social•9 days ago

Here is the simulation from weeks 182 to 185. It was 100% renewable (3/5)

davidosmond.bsky.social•9 days ago

My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

davidosmond.bsky.social•9 days ago

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($107/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewable-grid-is-readily-achievable-and-affordable

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