My sense is many thinking it, few or none saying it. The question is when that changes. - ThreadSky

tobiasharris.bsky.social • 3 days ago

My sense is many thinking it, few or none saying it. The question is when that changes.

Nervously waiting to see what it takes for Japan to start contemplating that

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worth remembering that ishiba’s meeting went decently well and looks even better in light of today. if you add in the abe-trump history, i think there’s still enough for japan to hold
onto for now.

pauljnadeau.bsky.social•3 days ago

That's why I'm wondering what it looks like after the pivot...it's comparatively easy when the issues are relatively-low stakes and outside of the spotlight. But if/when E Asia becomes the focus, that dynamic changes

tobiasharris.bsky.social•3 days ago

This is the "whistling past the graveyard" stage.

jordantcarlson.bsky.social•3 days ago

Don't forget that during the leadership campaign he *publicly* floated the idea of the US stationing nukes on Japanese soil.

jctenton.bsky.social•3 days ago

public's going to hate it but i don't see what the alternative is. can't rely on the US anymore and nukes are the only reliable way to secure yourself. and japan has everything they need to do it, plus those JAXA Epsilons are obviously ICBMs in waiting

pauljnadeau.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yep...you float that possibility and you still get the horrified "no never!"

But I'm beginning to think it's only a matter of when and what specifically prompts the discussion to come in the open

pauljnadeau.bsky.social•3 days ago

That debate will be *rough*

tobiasharris.bsky.social•3 days ago

I'm not getting the "no, never" replies when I float it. But it's the kind of thing that might actually trigger a political realignment. Or maybe less the nukes question and more, the Japan First party versus the liberal internationalist party.

pauljnadeau.bsky.social•3 days ago

That's interesting...but agree on the realignment; there'll be a big fissure between people here who blanch at the idea of not confronting China and those who will die on the antinuclear hill

valoisdubins.bsky.social•3 days ago

The problem that I think Zelenskyy is helping to resolve is that whether the weapons are nuclear or not, the correct answer is the liberal international order with a big stick. Without it, you’re gonna need a lot more sticks than you can afford.

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