Canadian Q3 GDP numbers came in today, which means another update to my G7 GDP growth chart! Here's each country's cumulative increase in real GDP, since just before the pandemic: 🇺🇸 +12.2% 🇨🇦 +7.6% 🇮🇹 +5.1% 🇫🇷 +3.5% 🇬🇧 +3.0% 🇯🇵 +0.2% 🇩🇪 +0.0% - ThreadSky

josephpolitano.bsky.social • 90 days ago

Canadian Q3 GDP numbers came in today, which means another update to my G7 GDP growth chart!

Here's each country's cumulative increase in real GDP, since just before the pandemic:

🇺🇸 +12.2%
🇨🇦 +7.6%
🇮🇹 +5.1%
🇫🇷 +3.5%
🇬🇧 +3.0%
🇯🇵 +0.2%
🇩🇪 +0.0%

Comments

jameshkc.bsky.social•90 days ago

Any quick POV on what’s happening in Germany?

nato-enthusiast.bsky.social•90 days ago

Multiple latent structural issues exacerbated by back to back and ongoing crises. Just as one example, the net infrastructure investments over 16 years of Merkel were negative. Germany got extremely complacent and simply couldn't conceive of the status quo changing

johannbuddenbrook.bsky.social•89 days ago

Just punishment for our sins

ar-rm4.bsky.social•90 days ago

I wish you would put yla chart together of nominal numbers instead of percentages. 10% growth in US GDP represents $8 Trillion Dollars. Italy, Canada have $2T GDPs!

alenestour.bsky.social•89 days ago

After adjusting for population growth btw 2019 and 23, Italy is 2nd with 7.6% and Canada 6th with 1.1%.
Adjusting by working age population growth, Italy is close to the US (9.3% and 10.5%).

viscousboredom.bsky.social•90 days ago

I just wanna get my, "ok now do it after adjusting for inflation" shots in before someone else does and gets told that this real GDP meaning it's already been adjusted, makes some excuses, then leaves the conversation

telfy.bsky.social•89 days ago

How much of the drop in Canada's GDP/cap is composition effects vs. a stagnation / decline in the output of the pre-2019 population?

josephpolitano.bsky.social•90 days ago

Here's each G7 country's cumulative increase in real GDP per capita, since just before the pandemic:

🇺🇸 +10.1%
🇮🇹 +6.4% (thru Q2)
🇯🇵 +2.4%
🇫🇷 +1.5% (thru Q2)
🇬🇧 -0.7%
🇩🇪 -1.9%
🇨🇦 -2.0%

vasilevsky.ca•90 days ago

How do you interpret the Canadian number? Is it most likely a widespread drop in wages/productivity, or simply a compositional effect?

josephpolitano.bsky.social•90 days ago

I think a lot of it is compositional, immigration went up a ton and the type of immigration shifted from higher to lower wage plus a lot of students, but I don't know how to quantify the composition (is there good data on wages for native-born canadians?)

vasilevsky.ca•90 days ago

And even if there were data like that, 20% of Canadians are neither native-born nor immigrated-since-covid, so it may not tell us enough

stewartgh.bsky.social•90 days ago

If you find any I’d love to see it - so many Canadians are laser focused about the per capita number, but I think there must be a sizeable difference between how that distributed between new immigrants (including non-PR).

denis.trailin.ca•90 days ago

Statcan some of reports on this. People who get an economic PR tend to have higher wages. Refugees and family lower.

TFW likely have lower wages. Part of the two-step process is sorting immigrant by potential future wages.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211206/dq211206b-eng.htm

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024001/article/00006-eng.htm

teakei.bsky.social•90 days ago

It's just population growth outstripping economic growth.

urbanlandrent.foundation•90 days ago

Damn inflation just especially bad in Canada?

tmihaljevic.bsky.social•90 days ago

I believe it’s the per capita that’s the problem. The both above graphs are inflation adjusted

urbanlandrent.foundation•90 days ago

Ah didn’t see “real” in the first tweet

michaelcollins88.bsky.social•89 days ago

Canada’s population has skyrocketed from 37.6 to 41 million in that period while Italy and Japan’s population has shrunk. Rapid population growth combined with a drop in productivity in AB probably explains a lot of why Canada looks like that.

liberty.bsky.social•90 days ago

🫣

pmillerd.com•90 days ago

Wow. Is this mostly because of increase in immigration to Canada?

liberty.bsky.social•90 days ago

Inflation + immigration spike affecting the per capita number

drrevolution.bsky.social•89 days ago

Gosh, really wish that 10.1% increase was distributed per capita. 🤨

denis.trailin.ca•90 days ago

There was a big upward revision for last years data for Canada. Are you using the latest series?

josephpolitano.bsky.social•90 days ago

yep!

pmwwp.bsky.social•90 days ago

Yikes

bessiambre.bsky.social•90 days ago

These Canadian numbers are quite disappointing. I wonder what's going on.

khuey.bsky.social•90 days ago

Oof Canada.

velyvan.bsky.social•89 days ago

Crazy what exploiting fossil fuels and fucking up the planet can do to an economy.

princetonyimby.bsky.social•89 days ago

I always wonder what proportion of the US increase in GDP is a function of pumping absolutely record-breaking amounts of oil and gas and becoming the world's largest petrochemicals producer in the period 2020-2024?

sikolnam.bsky.social•89 days ago

While public perception has been that the administration stifled the O&G sector. 🙃🙃🙃

boaconstrictor.bsky.social•90 days ago

Is the divergence in Canadian data due to large immigration?

sutherland2.bsky.social•90 days ago

Yes. Canada is actually near the bottom of these numbers are per capita.

teakei.bsky.social•90 days ago

Yes, Canadian population growth is disproportionately high.

teakei.bsky.social•90 days ago

Imagine telling someone even five years ago that Italy would be at 5% while Germany is stagnant. Inconceivable.

nato-enthusiast.bsky.social•90 days ago

Honestly it was pretty conceivable years ago given the long standing structural issues in the german economy, it just seems very far away as long as the music doesn't stop. And stop it Covid and the russian invasion very much did

rush1974.bsky.social•90 days ago

As about 2/3s of GDP is personal consumption, the 12.2% increase in the US, has a very great deal of nuance in it. If this increase was from increased disposable income, and not from purchasing on very high interest rate credit and depleted savings, that would be a great economic data. Thoughts?

boulderdaisy.bsky.social•89 days ago

So another Republican admin is going to inherit another great democratic economy.

jl7612.bsky.social•89 days ago

Man, Germany . . . :(

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