There are several lessons from Canada for UK politics
The biggest, most obvious lesson is likely to be widely ignored in the UK media by Saturday morning!
Don't think you could predict & project a 2029 General Election result from the polls 2025/2026. It would be difficult in 2027/2028!
The biggest, most obvious lesson is likely to be widely ignored in the UK media by Saturday morning!
Don't think you could predict & project a 2029 General Election result from the polls 2025/2026. It would be difficult in 2027/2028!
Comments
It's utterly absurd that the King is being put into that situation. It's an insult to Canada and the notion of the Commonwealth.
PeePee is completely inauthentic
b) mainstream parties not doing enough to tie him to Trump in the eyes of low-information voters
Looks at the widespread predictions about Boris’ long reign post the 2019 election.
Events dear boy
Labour/LD/G & Cons/Brexit/Reform - so party unlike US can go 9%/42%/24% in 5 years in different contexts. Constraints on who can switch where
Either way with over 4 years until the next election any prediction now is less than reliable
It is not: UK in 2029 will prob resemble Canada in 2025. For one thing, seems much too fragmented for an opposition get sort of 25% midterm lead we saw in Canada in 2024 (or UK in 2023-4)
- 2015 SNP landslide biggest seat change, 2024 Scot Labour landslide
- 2015 LD 16% fall is biggest loss of share for a party, except Con 2024
- 2017 Corbyn, biggest ever campaign rise. Highest 2 party share since 60s
- 2024 lowest 2ps since 1918
2022 biggest ever short-term loss of support leads to 2024 records for vote loss, seat loss, trough in Tory vote since universal suffrage
"Nick Timothy having a bit of a reckon about care costs".
The only certainty we have right now about 2028/29 is we really don’t know how things will go. That’s it.
same policies, different presentation.
Can't see them being loaned votes again, not while Labour are deliberately blanking pro-EU voters.
Brexit continuing in new forms for a generation, yes.
Harold Macmillan when asked what was the greatest challenge for a statesman replied
'Events, dear boy, events'
This has never been more true than today