It should be a glaring red flashing sign that OpenAI is losing money on a subscription that costs $200/month. The AI bubble is going to pop soon and it won't be pretty. - ThreadSky

esqueer.net • 43 days ago

It should be a glaring red flashing sign that OpenAI is losing money on a subscription that costs $200/month.

The AI bubble is going to pop soon and it won't be pretty.

Comments

tomtatum.bsky.social•32 days ago

What he was actually saying is that their price tag has been too low, seeing the use rate and the pro subs conversion rate

moonshoterin.bsky.social•43 days ago

good, I hope it drags every last fucking company that's put useless AI in customer's faces down with it.

velaethia.bsky.social•43 days ago

I wish. The government would just bail them out again and or they'll offset the cost onto the consumer.

moonshoterin.bsky.social•43 days ago

Yep. Fucking too bloated to fail all over again.

ihileath.bsky.social•43 days ago

Such a stupid fucking company for governments to decide is too important to allow to fail as well.

witchybitchy2112.bsky.social•32 days ago

China needs to give it away for free and watch the US economy implode.

jimbobmcboatface.bsky.social•43 days ago

What? I don't understand. Is it just because it's too expensive and no one is buying it?

energylawjack.bsky.social•43 days ago

Does that mean less slop all over the place all the time? That’d be awesome tbh

iamsaltytrash.bsky.social•43 days ago

it's like people don't want to try and do things for themselves, like research, because the hoops that they have to jump through to know if what they're reading is a lie or not are so steep they throw their money at whoever will do the thinking for them.

velaethia.bsky.social•43 days ago

AI has gotten endlessly funding with almost no return. These corpos are stuck in cost sunk falacy so they just keep throwing more and more money at it which is basically throwing money in the trashcan for a mid product with niche uses and is even worse for the environment then many other shit.

andrewfphotography.bsky.social•43 days ago

Hope your right!

xeeld.bsky.social•43 days ago

Here's hoping.

kawaiicrusader.bsky.social•43 days ago

One can only hope

t3ngu.bsky.social•43 days ago

It's amazing how nothing useful has come out of it, after billions and billions have been dumped into AI

nikomo.fi•43 days ago

Frankly not surprised. They're using the NVIDIA H200. $250k gets you a server with 8 of those.

So you're spending 31.25k + power per GPU, and you also need to pay for your free tier usage.

vantazach.bsky.social•43 days ago

Also quite the self-own that people can't get the answers they need in a timely fashion.

thereverended.bsky.social•43 days ago

or it could be a sign that market demand is so much they could raise it to $500+/month

littlestbird.bsky.social•43 days ago

i think it will be beautiful personally

xenusparadox.bsky.social•43 days ago

That's ok because the real customers are tech giants who want to integrate it into everything so people become dependent on it to think for them.

wanderwyrm.bsky.social•43 days ago

Burst bubble, burst! Go the way of the speculator boom!

sharonbuchbinder.bsky.social•43 days ago

tinselfire.bsky.social•43 days ago

Meanwhile Everquest ($15/month) is still making long tail money after 26 years. It ain't much, but it's consistently pulling its weight.

A 26 yo MMO is better at playing the capitalism game by the supposed rules than OpenAI is.

fat4all.bsky.social•43 days ago

mega corps like microsoft are gonna spend so much of its wealth trying to save it, too

stecook.bsky.social•43 days ago

I’m here for it though.

dis-associate.bsky.social•43 days ago

AI will truly accelerate the next Great Depression

paghetti.bsky.social•43 days ago

good, then we're at the reality check quadrant of the Gartner cycle. BUT will MS rewrite the OS to get rid of AI, will Grammerly, will Adobe, will Google, etc.

antikerbal.bsky.social•42 days ago

"People fear that computers are getting smart and will take over the world. The real problem is that computers are not smart and have already taken over."
https://bsky.app/profile/laurensvhg.bsky.social/post/3lfwmdqgodk2h

wardwellian.bsky.social•43 days ago

Here's hoping...

vegetablehammer.bsky.social•43 days ago

patrick boyle did a financial deep dive on a.i. and oof...like, it CAN'T make money.

the more it's pushed, the (exponentially)more it costs. the idea of scalability turned inside-out, inverted, and set on fire.

gatorali.bsky.social•43 days ago

My schadenfreude-meter is ready to pop too.

So pissed of that co-worker that praises tech-bros every day.

I want him to look stupid when all his heroes come crashing down.

halifaxrunner.bsky.social•43 days ago

I don't think it's an AI bubble. It's a hype bubble. AI isn't going anywhere. I'm not kidding, I remember people, some in tech, saying public Internet was a bubble. The hype was, but the Internet is still here. Same as AI.

tiana-atr.bsky.social•43 days ago

AI as a whole probably isn't, but a lot of the generative AI and consumer facing stuff probably is gonna mostly die. It'll have it's uses in research and various other things, but its not gonna be shoved into literally everything anymore.

wordwitcher.bsky.social•43 days ago

A bubble refers to the financial impact. Just like the housing bubble didn't lead to there being no houses, and the dot com bubble didn't lead to no internet, the AI bubble won't erase AI but it is going to tank for a while.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

methodnull.bsky.social•43 days ago

Not soon enough

earachemyeye.bsky.social•40 days ago

I don't think that means that at all. It means that they could charge mor for it and that there appears to be a huge demand.

jonnyv.bsky.social•32 days ago

He said he is losing money at the current subscription rate. Maybe some people are willing to pay more than the current rate, maybe even enough to clear a profit after lost subscriptions, but that's speculation.

francescatherose.bsky.social•43 days ago

There is a growing population of Millenials and Gen Z that is rejecting modern apps and tech in hopes of a more simplified, unmonitored life. People feel oversaturated with marketing and AI; if this shit is attempting to replace us as artists, why use it? Hope it crashes and burns.

velaethia.bsky.social•43 days ago

I'm gen z and I can't speak for my entire generation but my friend group don't really chase the newest app. Most of us aren't on a lot of social media. We mainly interact with discord so we aren't likely to drop that any time soon. I'm on reddit, and now bluesky a little bit. There is so much though

mynahleague.bsky.social•43 days ago

I hope you are correct about the younger generations moving away from apps and tech. It needs to happen so we can reset.

francescatherose.bsky.social•43 days ago

Just speaking for myself and my friends, a lot of us have gotten off of every platform. I even started using a backup phone that I can't download any apps on, just use it for phone and text. I've heard similar stories on places like Reddit. I pray it happens and soon; complacency = death.

isensiel.bsky.social•43 days ago

The need for physical media needs to be reinforced. No one can take away your songs or movies over some random thing when they are on discs.

Even if you "own" a digital version on a service you do not own it.

velaethia.bsky.social•43 days ago

Because consumer rights for digital goods is virtually non-existent.

virtualis.bsky.social•43 days ago

Huh. I wonder if Mr. Altman is talking about one of those "hypotheticals" these jokers are so loath to discuss?

gregdean.bsky.social•43 days ago

Inshallah.

harry-is-human.bsky.social•43 days ago

I think bits of it will survive - the currently freely available model will go, but I think Microsoft are right that people will pay a higher subscription for copilot to write minutes.

This does depend on them getting it to work though as it's shite at it.

delonwheels.bsky.social•42 days ago

I hope this has been a real illusion-shattering moment for anyone that thought that administrators of tech businesses were in any way good at business or tech

mbrzz.bsky.social•43 days ago

if we're lucky itll take all of big tech with us. even if it doesnt it takes out like at least a trillion dollars of capital away from tech when it implodes. lol, lmao even.

katwithav.bsky.social•32 days ago

You misunderstand. He is saying the $200 doesn’t cover the cost for the large amount of hours the subscribers use the service.
The servers, the ones ruining the environment, cost OpenAI per hour of usage, its not a fixed cost, and he hadn’t anticipated each subscriber to use ChatGPT this much.

evedonthaze.bsky.social•32 days ago

Sam Altman’s ‘costs are too high’ is a blatant lie to lure investors. Bros salty because his $200 premium is too small for his greedy heart. False narrative to lure more investor cash. Open Ai is WeWork 2.0. LLMs will all be local. While Open Ai is trying to market it.

katwithav.bsky.social•32 days ago

I don't disagree, I was just sorting out the logic behind how "we dont break even" and "our service is incredibly popular" can both be true.

katwithav.bsky.social•32 days ago

That said, the AI *hype* bubble will absolutely burst and people will lose a LOT of money.

transsexual316.bsky.social•43 days ago

@edzitron.com has been doing great at covering/explaining this on the “better offline” pod.

duboisstanaccount.bsky.social•43 days ago

I’ll enjoy it personally

redregon.bsky.social•43 days ago

As someone that lived through the first tech bubble pop... it wasn't pretty, and back then the world's industries weren't stitched into the fabric of the internet.

It could be catastrophic in today's economy.

redregon.bsky.social•43 days ago

(Side note, I wouldn't be surprised if this is partly the reason they're pushing AI into so many other industries... trying to set themselves up as a "too big to fail" industry so they get golden parachutes from the gov't when the house of cards collapses.)

bobtheguardian.bsky.social•43 days ago

Meta and OpenAI as the GM and Bank of America of our times is gonna be a tough sell.

Not to mention the general public hates them all (crossing party lines!) making it a politically radioactive idea

teeklin.bsky.social•42 days ago

Public perception of AI is actually very high, especially among the young in America who are increasingly relying on it over even basic search engines and use it constantly for school work

redregon.bsky.social•42 days ago

Great, so the enshittification of the internet is resulting in the enshittification of critical thinking capabilities in the coming generation.

Lovely.

rockstarretrievers.bsky.social•43 days ago

Since when has pubic opinion swayed legislation in this country? The only thing that matters to the legislators is money.

vaneshi.bsky.social•43 days ago

IT nerds warned that "the web is not the panacea to your failing business model". We were right then and we're right now about "AI".

clementinedanger.bsky.social•43 days ago

I doubt it. These tech types have a way of making their problems everyone's problems. We've been sifting through the rubble they leave behind for a while now and they're only getting worse.

albizu.com•42 days ago

Open AI’ ChatGPT has a subscription that’s only $20/month that we have to assume is the most commonly used by users.

So yeah, given how resource-intensive is running these AI models, I can see how they could still be in the red.

jonnyv.bsky.social•32 days ago

But he said that they are even losing money on their pro subscribers. Even $200 isnt enough.

bobtheguardian.bsky.social•43 days ago

It's giving 3Dtv mixed with Lehman Bros. vibes.

Hope ya got some savings ya'll!

drnoisepaints.com•43 days ago

Looking forward to it.

batjcp.bsky.social•32 days ago

Honestly can't wait for the crash, and hope a *lot* of these f*ckers burn when it happens.
Trying to literally steal from working class has to be paid for in blood

kittenby.bsky.social•43 days ago

Not fast enough. It should have popped 5 years ago.

ambassadorgkar.bsky.social•42 days ago

Let it be soon

platysez.bsky.social•43 days ago

PLEASE let this mean GenAI is going to collapse soon…

withdeeues.bsky.social•32 days ago

Can't wait!

pcziezek.bsky.social•43 days ago

can’t wait until AI faces the same fate NFTs have suffered

theraspandonly.bsky.social•43 days ago

Goverment payouts gonna be flying out left and right to save these folks at the same time as those grocery prices were supposed to be going down.

I'm sure that'll make the folks who voted for him regret it... Right?

nealiosaurus.bsky.social•43 days ago

Turns out making a pile of billions of investor dollars and lighting it on fire is a bad business strategy...

gu3.st•43 days ago

Then there's google's tactic where nobody was paying them $20/user for Gemini in Google Workspace so instead they're increasing the price $2/user for everyone and made it impossible to disable.

nathanhatch.bsky.social•43 days ago

While I agree it's going to fall apart there's no way this is true on its face. There's some underhanded shit, like soliciting more investors salivating at the idea of folks paying more than $200/mo for something that is essentially vaporware.

ljamied.bsky.social•43 days ago

Which, given the disastrous environmental impact of AI server farms sucking up massive amounts of energy, is probably a very good thing.

ljamied.bsky.social•43 days ago

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ais-climate-impact-goes-beyond-its-emissions/

d33ps33k.bsky.social•42 days ago

They may need to tweak their pricing model.

familiaralien.bsky.social•42 days ago

Me, someone that draws as my fav hobby, watching this genAI shit go down exactly the same way NFTs did a few years ago

theotherswanson.bsky.social•43 days ago

HOW much a month?!?!?

Naw you got me fucked up, LMAO, they're dumber than I thought of they think more normies are gonna pay that much for their janky bullshit.

This is gonna be even funnier than the NFT crash.

haileyisheretostay.bsky.social•43 days ago

I want the AI bubble to pop purely because GPUs might get cheaper.

jlwashi.bsky.social•32 days ago

FAFO business plans are doomed to fail. He trained
the LLM on copyrighted material was the first red flag, and it has been going downhill since then.

motown.bsky.social•43 days ago

Give me only $100/month and I'll feed you bullshit just like OpenAI.

mydadeatsramen.bsky.social•43 days ago

what are you, the first therapist i saw at 14?

dangrously.bsky.social•43 days ago

if I spent two hundred bucks a month, I would just set up a queue of stuff to render and set the thing off, hell I would be on fiver and asking for commissions for videos. Twenty bucks each, that's less than one per day and I'm in the black.

cosmopolitanrdw.bsky.social•43 days ago

Can’t happen soon enough.

bufordcrater04.bsky.social•32 days ago

If only a bubble burst would get them to roll back all of the AI bullshit, but I fear they will double down.

duckrabbitpro.bsky.social•42 days ago

Here’s me hoping it pops soon.

AI is currently destroying everything I love 😔

lostsunrise7.bsky.social•43 days ago

Sam Altman is a very evil man. Justice won't do anything about all the things he has done but hopefully this bubble will burst soon.

This dude would light the world on fire just to get slightly richer. He's got no morals or principles.

F that dude.