In a new article in @foreignaffairs.com, @marniehowlett.bsky.social, @carlmc.bsky.social & I argue that Trump is making a strategic mistake by sidelining Zelensky & #Ukraine in talks with #Russia. Ukraine Will Not Surrender to Russia foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai... via @foreignaffairs.com - ThreadSky

janinadill.bsky.social • 2 days ago

In a new article in @foreignaffairs.com, @marniehowlett.bsky.social, @carlmc.bsky.social & I argue that Trump is making a strategic mistake by sidelining Zelensky & #Ukraine in talks with #Russia.

Ukraine Will Not Surrender to Russia https://foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukraine-will-not-surrender-russia?utm_medium=social via
@foreignaffairs.com

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janinadill.bsky.social•2 days ago

We argue that a deal will not end the war if it crosses Ukrainians' redlines. Based on two surveys (July 22 & Jan 25) we show that Ukrainians oppose any strategy that opens the door to Russian pol control. Their views have not changed, they prefer resistance AT ANY COST

janinadill.bsky.social•2 days ago

Ukrainians also still oppose territorial concessions and giving up NATO, but on these issues their preferences have weakened compared to 2022, suggesting that a space for negotiations is opening up.

janinadill.bsky.social•2 days ago

Ukrainians are obviously keenly aware of the costs of continued self-defence against Russia, but are remarkably still willing to bear very high costs of resistance.

janinadill.bsky.social•2 days ago

We point out the obvious ethical and legal problems with forcing Ukrainians into a deal that also contradicts strong and relatively homogenous public preferences.

janinadill.bsky.social•2 days ago

We push back against the narrative that Ukrainian resistance (and Western support) is vain & unrealistic. Ukrainians are realists, their beliefs about the end of the war reflect reality. All the more reason to take their strong and unyielding preferences seriously!

janinadill.bsky.social•2 days ago

If Trump wants to end the war, not just create a pause, reward Putin/aggression, & make America look weak, he needs to work with Zelensky.

There is nothing "realist" about forcing 39 million people into a rump state frantically forged in the furnace of great-power politics.

illluminati.bsky.social•2 days ago

Powerful message! 🇺🇦 Respect for the unwavering Ukrainian resolve. A lasting peace requires respecting their red lines.

carlmc.bsky.social•2 days ago

For everyone intersted in more details, the working paper lives here (the link in the article is wrong, unfortunately): https://www.carlmueller-crepon.org/publication/at_any_cost_repl/

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