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In our new piece in @foreignaffairs.com, @janinadill.bsky.social, @carlmc.bsky.social, and I argue that Trump is making a strategic mistake excluding #Ukraine from talks with Russia.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

I'm very happy that we were able to rerun our 2022 conjoint experiment on Ukrainians' attitudes towards the war and its brutal tradeoffs in Dec '24/Jan '25. See below article in Foreign Affairs for a summary. More details in our (short) working paper here www.carlmueller-crepon.org/publication/...

submitted 1 day ago • 3 comments

Such a travesty that the Demographic and Health Survey program was terminated this week. I realize the Gates Foundation can't pick up all the pieces, but this one seems like a natural one for them to pick up given that the DHS is the go-to data source for many of their focus areas.

submitted 1 day ago • 5 comments

Wow! This is hitting very close to home -- I have worked A LOT with these data and I'm not even doing public health research. Is there a publicly available copy available somewhere?

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

I'm very happy that we were able to rerun our 2022 conjoint experiment on Ukrainians' attitudes towards the war and its brutal tradeoffs in Dec '24/Jan '25. See below article in Foreign Affairs for a summary. More details in our (short) working paper here www.carlmueller-crepon.org/publication/...

submitted 1 day ago • 3 comments

In a new article in @foreignaffairs.com, @marniehowlett.bsky.social, @carlmc.bsky.social & I argue that Trump is making a strategic mistake by sidelining Zelensky & #Ukraine in talks with #Russia. Ukraine Will Not Surrender to Russia foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai... via @foreignaffairs.com

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

A small ray of light: my paper with @heingoemans.bsky.social and @miweintraub83.bsky.social, “Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes,” is “just accepted” at @thejop.bsky.social! See what prospect theory can (and can’t) explain about territorial disputes: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

That's beyond incredible.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Wir haben gestern lange darüber gesprochen was wir tun würden wenn Autoritäre und Faschisten die Macht übernehmen. Behält man Stellen in Bürokratie und Wissenschaft, wandert man aus, wie würde man Widerstand organisieren? Als Deutscher kennt man diese Fragen. Man hat sie häufig rückblickend ... 1/

submitted 5 days ago • 8 comments

Today (Feb 22) in 1943, three courageous young people in the group White Rose were executed for distributing anti-Nazi leaflets in Germany. Sophie Scholl: "The greatest damage is caused by the silent majority that just wants to survive, submit and go along with everything."

submitted 5 days ago • 10 comments

21st Century version of gunboat diplomacy: ‘Give in to our demands or else.’ US foreign policy towards Ukraine is openly imperialist and strategically aligns with an other imperialist great power, Russia. Liberal internationalism has been replaced with realpolitik nationalism.

submitted 5 days ago • 3 comments

Most Western governments and politicians right now have no idea what they are up against. Our infrastructure and our alliances are completely outdated.

submitted 6 days ago • 36 comments

We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R. yiqingxu.org/packages/fec... Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.

submitted 7 days ago • 6 comments

In a new Editorial, JAMA editors, JAMA Network Editors in Chief, and JAMA editorial leadership address the recent executive orders that have impacted the scientific process and reaffirm their commitment to scientific and editorial integrity. ja.ma/4b5LsIt

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Big fan of Paper Picnic 🧺 Every Friday night, it pulls new articles from over 60 political science & economics journals. If you sign up to the mailing list, you receive a weekly email with a list of all new papers, sorted by journal. Excellent work, @moritzmarbach.bsky.social! paper-picnic.com

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

I’m not confident that protests will defeat Trumpism (though protest we must), but I’m confident that Trumpism will be defeated. 1/8

submitted 9 days ago • 2 comments

Zelenskyy: If we didn't give in to all those ultimatums at the most difficult moment, why is there a feeling that we would now? He recalled Moscow’s past demands—shrinking Ukraine’s army, ceding occupied land, and installing a pro-Kremlin government.

submitted 9 days ago • 5 comments

👇 Start reading. And academics, time to get concrete about the theoretical and practical work needed to meet this moment. Writing matters, audience matters

submitted 9 days ago • 2 comments

Yup...it isn't in hiding anymore, they are flat-out Nazis Great stuff from @marisakabas.bsky.social www.thehandbasket.co/p/nazis-musk...

submitted 10 days ago • 8 comments

From the experience of the successful grassroots fight against Netanyahu's attempt at judicial overhaul, I cannot stress enough three points: 1. Civil society should not assume that opposition politicians will take the lead. In Israel, politicians were not the ones leading the fight. CS was.

submitted 10 days ago • 2 comments

Excellent, clear-eyed take on Europe's response to Trump 2.0 by @gideonrachman.bsky.social. In short: - build up own defence and own defence industries - European mutual defence pact inc UK & Norway - comprehensive de-risking of European vulnerabilities to US www.ft.com/content/11f1...

submitted 10 days ago • 2 comments

Hadn’t realised the significance of the number 14 for white supremacists. Look it up, if you have a strong stomach

submitted 11 days ago • 16 comments

Posting here a thread by Stathis N. Kalyvas, who is not yet in BlueSky:

submitted 11 days ago • 33 comments

Europe, stop freaking out about Vance. We already know he’s far right, it’s not news. Focus on deciding what you are going to do concretely this month to change the reality & facts on the ground in way that makes Ukraine winning & Russia losing a clear win for Trump.

submitted 13 days ago • 29 comments

"The danger to Europe lies in the interplay of three crucial factors: American disengagement, western European denialism and Russian determination." Also: "Last week, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service [said] that Russia would be able to move against another neighbour in as little as 6 months."

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

He didn't lecture them about "democracy." He chided them for not wanting work with neo-nazi parties and for resisting Russian influence in elections. He also attacked immigrants.

submitted 13 days ago • 18 comments

Good luck. Vance wants to forge an alternative transatlantic alliance outside of the establishment crowd gathered at the MSC. His audience was Weidel, Orban, Kickl, Wilders, Fico, PiS in Poland etc & far-right European intellectuals, influencers, journos that were schmoozed by Bannon

submitted 13 days ago • 11 comments

About once every half-million years, Earth's magnetic poles switch. After day 1 of #MSC2025, I can't think of a better metaphor for the European politics of the transatlantic alliance: everything is reversing.

submitted 13 days ago • 8 comments

We shouldn't take anything off the table before the negotiations have even started. It is clear that any deal behind our backs will not work. You need the Europeans, you need the Ukrainians. Extracts from my doorstep ahead of NATO Defence Ministers meeting ↓

submitted 14 days ago • 201 comments

Just back from Europe and many struck by numbing cognitive break as they watch US. But there is no quick deal that will solve it. Instead, Europe needs to find its strengths just as Russia is militarily spent and China faces economic weakness. Key strategy = reach out to the world as others retreat.

submitted 14 days ago • 1 comment

Alexander Dugin, the Russian ultra-nationalist and Neo-fascist, tweets at Tulsi Gabbard after her confirmation and says “you are simply awesome.” Dugin, a close Putin ally, is often referred to as “Putin’s brain.”

submitted 15 days ago • 93 comments

📢 Call for papers 📢 Workshop "Computational Social Science meets Qualitative Research" that I organise with colleague @dandekadt.bsky.social at LSE in November 2025. Anyone interested please send us a 250-word abstract by 26 March 2025 ! Learn more➡️ buff.ly/3CCijaY @lsemethodology.bsky.social

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Political scientists: please consider signing, and sharing with other political scientists, this petition, which expresses urgent concerns about threats to the balance of powers in the U.S. today. Hundreds have already signed.

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

Just changed my search engine to duckduckgo... not sure how last, but even a short move away from Google could send a signal (if many people would do it).

submitted 16 days ago • 18 comments

Wikipedia is rolling out anonymity features piloted in countries with authoritarian governments in the US & is making a change to not show editor IP addresses in response to a global "increase in threats" from Elon Musk, Heritage Foundation, and governments www.404media.co/wikipedia-pr...

submitted 16 days ago • 39 comments

I am happily settled in at the @lsegovernment.bsky.social and looking forward to presenting joint work with @aarslew.bsky.social on Thursday. Please join us for the talk either in London or online.

submitted 18 days ago • 2 comments