🚨🌍🌡📈 Using a 15-year trend, we have now officially passed 1.5°C of global warming. All recent La Niña months are above the trendline. Extrapolating this linear trend, we'll hit +1.75°C by 2031 and +2.0°C by 2037. ⬇️ - ThreadSky

leonsimons.bsky.social • 2 days ago

🚨🌍🌡📈
Using a 15-year trend, we have now officially passed 1.5°C of global warming.

All recent La Niña months are above the trendline.

Extrapolating this linear trend, we'll hit +1.75°C by 2031 and +2.0°C by 2037.
⬇️

Comments

frobisher75.bsky.social•1 day ago

Live footage of people caring about this… whenever I bring it up, people literally haven’t got a clue. Terrifying times.

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

ΔT +1.75°C:

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

ΔT +2.0°C:

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

Nonlinear 30-year trends show similar timing of breaking climate thresholds.

There's very little reason to assume that the past 30-year trend will continue linearly.

But even then, passing 1.5°C would be only four years away.

H/t @tugberksamur.bsky.social
@ecmwf.int

tom-weiss.bsky.social•2 days ago

Wow, thanks!
For the rest of us (who don't play around woth the source code ;-) , this is what the 30yr linear trend looked like in 2015 (1.5°C Paris Accord) - pic1.
Compare that with current 30yr linear trend as of Apr. 2025 - pic2
https://apps.climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-trend-monitor/

nonviolence.bsky.social•2 days ago

For the rest of us, I would assume this below.

Why, you ask?

Because of emissions since 2015 and observed W/m2 radiative forcing aka acceleration 🏎️ Brick wall 🧱 , no 🏒
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2464408-air-monitoring-station-records-biggest-ever-jump-in-atmospheric-co2/
https://bsky.app/profile/nonviolence.bsky.social/post/3lojeqdhgz22c

tom-weiss.bsky.social•2 days ago

We are on the same page.
What I meant was that even without coding the acceleration is quite obvious for everyone using the copernicus tool - even with their linear 30yr trends, simply compare the results for 2000, 2015 and 2025...
No contradiction with Leon!

tom-weiss.bsky.social•2 days ago

with

drtomharris.bsky.social•2 days ago

If we continue the linear EEI trend, the energy accumulation to reach +2ºC will be achieved by 2033. There is lag from inertia though, so your figure of 2037 looks spot on.

travellingerik.bsky.social•1 day ago

And it doesn’t stop there of course. What’s the estimation for the decades after that? Non-linear so the real shock/catastrophe comes after the 2 degrees.

leonsimons.bsky.social•1 day ago

Nobody knows

travellingerik.bsky.social•1 day ago

I was hoping for a facts based doom scenario. My estimation is still approximately 5 degrees around 2050, but I’m not a scientist. Then life as we know it will be over, and the end of mankind. We had a chance but according to Darwin there’s no place for a species as stupid as we are.

wuhanclams.bsky.social•2 days ago

nonviolence.bsky.social•1 day ago

https://bsky.app/profile/nonviolence.bsky.social/post/3lot3tjxio22r

nonviolence.bsky.social•2 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/nonviolence.bsky.social/post/3loqvzju4e22z

prunepicker.bsky.social•2 days ago

All the birds are dying.

https://www.birds.cornell.edu/home/bring-birds-back/

vector-ze.bsky.social•2 days ago

Birds, amphibians, insects.
Odds are fair I'll be dead in 10-15 years, and though I weep for the world, I'm glad I have no offspring.
The Anthropocene extinction event has been ongoing for a couple of generations. I will leave the world saddened by what we've done to it.

pauli146.bsky.social•1 day ago

They. Don’t. Care. Until.

solardavegreen.bsky.social•2 days ago

What is the hocus-pocus that makes the chart appear to level off in the future? It's not because of anything the Trump administration is doing.

sassalesvonscales.bsky.social•2 days ago

2 scenarios, human emissions level off because civilization is not longer tenable, but also at a certain point it takes more greenhouse gasses to force the sane amount of temperature increase over the sane period. That doesn't really kick in on any temperature level we would want though.

trixiebelden75.bsky.social•2 days ago

No NoAA, no NES just drill baby drill for what future

serenaribena.bsky.social•2 days ago

The next el Niño should be a doozy! 😱

geedaveyh.bsky.social•2 days ago

Really? https://youtu.be/Bo0YrN4Nz_c?si=SSQPExkgR-8kO2cc

sslim5.bsky.social•2 days ago

Either way I have lived in the same rural area all my life. It is incredibly hotter now than when I was a kid.

So yes, it is getting way hotter. I don't need a graph to tell me that.

ree81.bsky.social•2 days ago

Reported. Byeeeeeee.

ree81.bsky.social•2 days ago

Hitting world wide news, all channels, in 3...... 2.......

......Wait what? DENIAL IN ALL THE WORLD?!

seesight.bsky.social•1 day ago

Some estimate 50% Earth mortality at 4 deg C

peakhumanity.bsky.social•2 days ago

My wager has been +2C in 2039, so yeah. That tracks.

ree81.bsky.social•2 days ago

-33

padjen.bsky.social•2 days ago

Disappointing.

Frustrating.

I’m certain that with policies and human drive we can get to 2.0C much quicker.

reescatophuls.bsky.social•2 days ago

I have July 1st pencilled in for loess-15-year trend to pass 1.5C with Copernicus era5 data.

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

I guess that will depend on the next few months

melissapudding.bsky.social•2 days ago

So, we’re past tipping point now!
Dreadful, absolutely dreadful!

ozhillbilly.bsky.social•2 days ago

The trend line looks a little below and above the data start and finish, but that only varies the outcome by a year or three.

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

Other lines of evidence support a strong increased rate of warming over the past decades.

Without this, I wouldn't make strong strong statements on surface air temperature trends.

nonviolence.bsky.social•2 days ago

Wait. Are you saying there is a connection between radiative forcing and temperatures?

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

Many seem to be surprised that adding heat to a system tends to increase its temperature.

And that adding more heat faster increases temperatures faster

ozhillbilly.bsky.social•2 days ago

Fully agree acceleration is clear, but the 15 year trend starts in a trough and ends in a peak, both part due to natural variability.

leonsimons.bsky.social•2 days ago

I wouldn't call the start of this a through. It's at the center of the trend at the time.

And how much of a peak the end is is quite uncertain.
ENSO was neutral/negative, solar cycle 25 peaked.

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