I mean no reasonable person is seeing the Selzer poll as proof that Kamala Harris is going to crush Donald Trump in Iowa. But finding a poll from 2004 is just a sign of unnecessary desperation. - ThreadSky

yasharali.bsky.social • 122 days ago

I mean no reasonable person is seeing the Selzer poll as proof that Kamala Harris is going to crush Donald Trump in Iowa.

But finding a poll from 2004 is just a sign of unnecessary desperation.

Comments

casuallychaotic.bsky.social•122 days ago

So what they're saying is that they had to go back a full 20 years before finally finding one of their polls that was wrong..?

luciecatnip.bsky.social•121 days ago

Tim Miller had a good interview with Selzer this weekend and, yes, she talked about the Kerry poll.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6JskR4kqfDYStRzOmFSXp8?si=678xjbjCRsm5mKZBiN4zlg

jefffrane.bsky.social•122 days ago

It's only 20 years! Give him a break.

racheljedw.bsky.social•122 days ago

This poll freak out reminds me everyone freaking out about her poll in 2016. Harris campaign was right not to push hard on Iowa and focus instead with WI, MI, and PA

She might be right, she might be wrong. It does reveal weakness on Trump in the Midwest

theotherjim.bsky.social•122 days ago

To be fair, she was also wrong about the 2018 gubernatorial election. So if you don't count 2022, 2020, 2016, 2014, 2012...

mikejohansenmd.medsky.social•122 days ago

OUR DATA HAVE HIM ONLY RUNNING 3 POINTS WORSE THAN 2020. 🤣

dnlmsstch.bsky.social•122 days ago

She wasn't that far off

sylvanrat.bsky.social•122 days ago

A similar shift means we might not even know who won Iowa until Wednesday, which even the lack of an immediate red win should put ice in their veins.

bop.bsky.social•122 days ago

If she's exactly as wrong this year as she was in 2004 then Trump's lost 5 points since last election

conelrad6401240.bsky.social•122 days ago

Typical Concha.

celia-eels.bsky.social•122 days ago

Oh no not that anything but (checks) a 49% vote share for a D presidential candidate in Iowa.

accountabilabuddy.bsky.social•121 days ago

Their first flailing defense was to wave around a poll with him up by 5.

They are seemingly unaware: if he's *only* +5 in Iowa, it is almost certainly joever.

hulkling-she-her.bsky.social•122 days ago

pretty good guess who is scraping the bottom of the barrel

crowpotkin.bsky.social•122 days ago

Bush won Iowa with 49.90% to Kerry's 49.23%. If Selzer is overcounting the Dems by five, that means Trump is still only winning by 2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election#Results

zyzzyva.bsky.social•122 days ago

And in 2020 Iowa was *three* points redder than Texas. Obviously the states don't necessarily move in perfect sync, but even that size error would blow the GOP out of the water.

casuallychaotic.bsky.social•122 days ago

And considering how much Donold is having to lie about his rally attendances, to the point where cameramen start to live fact check him on it...

0kultra.bsky.social•121 days ago

Hey, when did that happen I wanna poast that to hellsite

casuallychaotic.bsky.social•121 days ago

Greensboro, North Carolina, on Saturday night.

0kultra.bsky.social•121 days ago

North fucking Carolina? Wew

casuallychaotic.bsky.social•121 days ago

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-rally-full-empty-seats-1235151596/

crowpotkin.bsky.social•122 days ago

That one cameraman is braver than the New York Times

blingdomepiece.bsky.social•122 days ago

Kind of wonder if Trump’s somewhat deflated manner today isn’t linked to this.

nicolas.grumpycoder.net•122 days ago

Copium.

pymbalsamo.bsky.social•122 days ago

There was also a late surge in Iowa for Bush in 2004, which couldn't have been accounted for when that poll released. Bush had a massive rally that really energized his base in the western part of the state.

casuallychaotic.bsky.social•122 days ago

The poll may even have encouraged Bush's campaign to push the state harder than they had been.

It was a snap shot in a moment, not a solid prediction on the final result.

steverocklage.bsky.social•122 days ago

I mean, there’s no way Selzer has modified and improved her methodology in the past 20 years, right? 🙄🤣

nelnelnellie.bsky.social•122 days ago

I thought the polling meant there was at least a chance to pick up Iowa. It’s been red so long now, flipping 1 seat would be remarkable.

larelli.bsky.social•122 days ago

It could happen of course! It’s just such an outlier from other polls on one hand but on the other hand it’s from such a highly respected pollster whose previous outlier polls were fairly spot on….

People are just unsure of what it all means as regards to a Harris WIN
it is a good overall sign tho

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