Why are you using a chart of the general electorate when discussing Stein’s hold on the 18-29s? The kids are solid blue. If there’s a demo for Stein to spoil, they’re not it. - ThreadSky

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alexqgb.bsky.social • 117 days ago

Why are you using a chart of the general electorate when discussing Stein’s hold on the 18-29s?

The kids are solid blue. If there’s a demo for Stein to spoil, they’re not it.

Comments

bpell2.bsky.social•117 days ago

Right. If Hamby’s summary shows projected Trump % as the middle numbers, as you have to assume it does, and even if you add Stein’s numbers to Trump’s, the only place it looks close is PA (Harris +3) for this age group.

bpell2.bsky.social•117 days ago

Well, AZ would also be +3 for Harris under this scenario

alexqgb.bsky.social•117 days ago

Sure, but we’re talking about Greens. Half (?) these people casting protest votes have reservations about elections themselves, so we’re not talking about habitual voters who identify as such.

alexqgb.bsky.social•117 days ago

I would hate to be responsible for turning them out

bpell2.bsky.social•117 days ago

Yeah, the Stein votes are throwaways. No reason to “add” them to Trump’s count and I wish I hadn’t. Blame it on time change.

busbyj2.bsky.social•117 days ago

Yes, the middle category is Trump. It's more worrisome that Trump is that close with that age group in Pennsylvania. You can see the cross-tabs here. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/03/us/elections/times-siena-battleground-poll-crosstabs.html

alexqgb.bsky.social•117 days ago

I’d be worried if it were 47-44, but 49-44 is edging into comfortable. Other demos are a lot less reassuring, no question, but the kids are (relatively speaking) alright

busbyj2.bsky.social•117 days ago

I think was thinking the split was more favorable to Stein but you are right that the middle category is Trump.

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