Would be nice to have some breathless media coverage about what this tells up about market perceptions of the state of the UK economy.. - ThreadSky

jdportes.bsky.social • 38 days ago

Would be nice to have some breathless media coverage about what this tells up about market perceptions of the state of the UK economy..

Reposted from Glen O'Hara

UK 10 year gilts nearly back to where they started at the beginning of the year.

Comments

royliving.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yes, where is Andrew Neil on this?

catiomiles.bsky.social•38 days ago

Andrew Neil sounds like a broken record since forever.

neldermead.bsky.social•38 days ago

We clearly need daily fiscal adjustments from the Chancellor

pavsmith.bsky.social•38 days ago

Massive lurches like this paint a very disturbing view of the utterly short term effects. Especially when you consider the economic effects on the country. The prospects of the country can vary like that in 2 weeks? Really???

superiphi.bsky.social•38 days ago

Does anyone think this short burst had anything to do with the UK economy in itself rather than geopolitics?

organicrainstorm.bsky.social•38 days ago

Could be explained by a random walk

superiphi.bsky.social•38 days ago

Don't tempt me I did a lot of stuff on random walks in my youth

organicrainstorm.bsky.social•38 days ago

😂 never knew it could be so emotive

pwrussell.bsky.social•38 days ago

And, as a postscript, what it tells us about the state of the UK media.

jahodges69.bsky.social•38 days ago

Clearly, going on a trip to China WAS the thing to do.

bridkid.bsky.social•38 days ago

Presumably she's back at her 'station'. It's amazing how where you are in the world shifts the market.

organicrainstorm.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yield goes up ‘oh no our mortgages’ yield goes down (…delay) ‘oh no recession’. 10s-2s now reverted to +0.3, CAPE ratio flashing red, Sahm rule too. This is not good news

marketscalpel.bsky.social•38 days ago

Afraid the reality is it tells us that UK gilts are at the speculative end of the bond spectrum

https://bsky.app/profile/marketscalpel.bsky.social/post/3lfwd3koeqs2g

jdportes.bsky.social•38 days ago

Oh dear. That's not what those charts tell you, obviously.

marketscalpel.bsky.social•38 days ago

The fact that higher risk equates to bigger price moves is hardly controversial in the world of finance. Is this reality underlying the perception of UK bonds the sole fault of Rachel Reeves? Nope, but denying the reality of the situation today is a mugs game.

jdportes.bsky.social•38 days ago

Your charts do not show either prices or risk/volatility, obviously. To take a very simple example, the sharp fall in Greek bond spreads/rise in Greek bond prices reflects fact that those buying Greek bonds were taking a very *risky* bet, which paid off - not that the bonds are low risk!

marketscalpel.bsky.social•38 days ago

Prices move inversely to yields. Yield spreads are a short hand valuation method for different bonds. UK sovereign spreads have moved meaningfully higher on the global sell off in bonds ex US (and JP), and have started falling against other peers, including not only Greece, but China Germany etc QED

huddy99.bsky.social•38 days ago

“Temporary relief for Reeves and Starmer but their stewardship of our failing economy will remain a political challenge until the next election as the Tories rightly question their economic plans”

derekdevans3.bsky.social•38 days ago

Q - to what extent has and is the behaviour of the BoE relating to market liquidity/effective interest rates and what may or may not have been said to such person and org following this situ be determining, esp with the inflation figures the being announced?

robert19pearson.bsky.social•38 days ago

apparently when yields go up, it's all RR's fault.

And when yields go down, it's because of a weak economy, which must also be RR's fault and she must resign immediately or something, and that Mr Musk says we need another election because Gilt yields go up and they go down.

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