OBR publishes supplementarly analysis of fiscal impact of migration. Confirms earlier analysis : - the "average migrant" [in their data] earns slightly *more* than the UK average - the "average migrant" makes a more +ve fiscal contribution than average resident obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl... - ThreadSky

jdportes.bsky.social • 3 days ago

OBR publishes supplementarly analysis of fiscal impact of migration.

Confirms earlier analysis :

- the "average migrant" [in their data] earns slightly *more* than the UK average

- the "average migrant" makes a more +ve fiscal contribution than average resident

https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/FRS-migration-supplementary-forecast-information-release-Mar-2025.pdf

Comments

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

OBR @migobs.bsky.social/my work here. FWIW I think, as per below, OBR is being too "optimistic" about average migrant earnings in short run, too pessimistic about migrant earnings in long-run.

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

The OBR confirm, as I said when @rcolvile.bsky.social made the false claim below, that the OBR analysis covers migrants "across all migration routes" [their para 1.4].

Long past time he corrected and the @cps.org.uk withdrew their fictional numbers.

paliman.bsky.social•3 days ago

Here we go. Bring the popcorn.

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

Further important point is that OBR analysis does not (as the CPS/others have claimed) "exclude dependants".

Instead the migrant "worker" in the chart (like the UK resident), who could be on a work visa *or* a dependant visa, isn't necessarily in work but has an age-specific participation rate.

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

My earlier thread on the nonsense numbers from the CPS is here. Today's OBR publication confirms and reinforces what I said then.

https://bsky.app/profile/jdportes.bsky.social/post/3lhti7pnbgc2p

jimhigham.bsky.social•3 days ago

Col vile is a dishonest propagandist unfortunately. Why do right wingers have to lie so blatantly to push their agenda?

shakeystephens.bsky.social•3 days ago

This is going to be appalling. I can't click on it https://bsky.app/profile/rcolvile.bsky.social/post/3ljpa2qrszk2q

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

Just out of interest: how similar is the gradient in the middle years average immigrant to the middle years representative resident?

Eyeballing it they look similar.

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

I ask because I’m wondering if you split the resident population into low, average and high wage segments would they line up with the equivalent migrant lines as well?

Which is to say: are migrants the simply same as everyone else?

Some earn little, some earn lots, most earn about the average?

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

essentially yes in this analysis (to oversimplify a bit)

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

The more interesting question might be whether each segment is relatively larger in residents or migrants.

Overall the migrant population is clearly more contributive, as you show above, and that would make sense given the age and social profile.

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

I guess I’m wondering: is there evidence that migrants as a group tend to contribute more than residents even when you take into account the fact that many (most?) arrive after childhood and therefore don’t require those initial resources?

Does their relatively greater drive and dynamism pay off?

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

there is (eg see my paper on the East African Asians) but it's very difficult to generalise - migrants are very heterogeneous in both characteristics and outcomes. The OBR are not trying to answer that much more complex set of questions here.

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yes, I sort of included that in my thinking, there’s obviously going to be a difference between groups that are for eg refugees and/or face greater barriers to work due to discrimination vs groups that are overwhelmingly highly educated economic migrants.

mrswh.bsky.social•3 days ago

It would help if it indicated how much of the contribution is due to visas, fees, NHS Surcharge etc.

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

Why?

I mean, I assume that’s included in the tax bit (if not, it should be).

I mean, for sure we should be open about the fact we effectively tax migrants more than everyone else.

But why would it help the analysis?

mrswh.bsky.social•3 days ago

It is included in the tax bit. I was interested to see if that is the only difference between the two “average” lines (given as you say their gradients match) or if the “immigrant average” line is still higher without it, which would suggest greater achievement.

notharlock.bsky.social•3 days ago

migrants are self-selecting, they generally don't come to the UK if they don't have enough to get themselves started without going on benefits. So that's an entire chunk of the lower quartile not in the data at all, because they end up not living here if they can't find a job to earn enough money.

notharlock.bsky.social•3 days ago

And that doesn't cover the fact that most economic migrants have some sort of qualification or job prospects ready for them before they even arrive.

etaaffe.bsky.social•3 days ago

That's always been the way.

boweaver11.bsky.social•3 days ago

Ohhh facts 🤔 no need for those!!

jimhigham.bsky.social•3 days ago

📌

adamlbrown.bsky.social•3 days ago

Import to note that fiscal impact is not the same as overall economic impact. The latter is more important but the former is easier to measure

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

Indeed

shani-d.bsky.social•3 days ago

I’m a bit confused with the terminology they’ve used. Is the ‘average-wage’ migrant the same as the ‘average’ migrant?

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

It is quite confusing! There are two parts:

- in their data, the average wage migrant does indeed have (broadly) the average wage

- they *assume* that the 'average wage' migrant has the average UK participation rate - ie they are only earning 75% of the time or so...

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

[I think this second assumption isn't unreasonable and might be pessimistic, but we don't really know yet for this cohort of migrants]

jamesbowes01.bsky.social•3 days ago

There is a large number of recent immigrants working part time (international students) but it is likely that most work full time (and it is a requirement for a work visa, even if this wasn’t initially policed for care workers).

shani-d.bsky.social•3 days ago

Full time work is a requirement for those on skilled worker visas - unsure about health and care visas. For students, work is capped at 40 hours during term time.

Dependent spouses likely work as well. Dependent children don’t seem to be considered.

richardkeen.bsky.social•3 days ago

Eyeballing the areas it looks like I am a net drain on our national wealth… never doubted it!

markclaret.bsky.social•3 days ago

Does that include the migrants dependants?

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

implicitly yes - read down the thread

davehughespayne.bsky.social•3 days ago

📌

dazzerm.bsky.social•3 days ago

But…but the hotels and homeless soldiers! This doesn’t fit with the fascist narrative at all goddam it.

freedomforall.net•3 days ago

'the "average migrant" [in their data] earns slightly *more* than the UK average'.

Could this be the root of hatred?

ibnorfolk.bsky.social•2 days ago

That would at least be rational. But I think it’s just racism & xenophobia.

domruston.bsky.social•3 days ago

Given that it’s only ‘slightly’ more AND nobody’s life-experience sample size is going to be sufficient to exactly replicate the U.K. average, it seems implausible.

No doubt that *some migrants earn more than me* may well cause hatred. But that says more about the individual’s perspective?

freedomforall.net•3 days ago

Each person likely has their own heady cocktail of reasons for hate. Early experience of racism from adults in their environment must be high on the list. I suspect seeing immigrants succeed, start business, and enter high earning professions is up there. I know few educated racists (precisely one).

domruston.bsky.social•3 days ago

Indeed. All of which factors are likely to be more personally influential than some marginal OBR statistics…!!

freedomforall.net•3 days ago

True, but I was contemplating the quotidian experience of seeing immigrants achieve success rather than the dry data — I recognise that wasn't clear in my post.

peterbarabas.bsky.social•3 days ago

Immigrants - we get the job done.

stephenlaw.bsky.social•3 days ago

I looked for percentage of migrants that are low, average, and high income, but didn't spot it. If the majority were low, or high, income, that might e.g. make migrants a big net drain, or a big benefit. We can't tell from this data, if I have understood it correctly?

jdportes.bsky.social•3 days ago

It says what the 25th/50th/75th percentile are (and that the average migrant earns slightly more than the average resident in their data).

As I say in my thread, I think their data is a bit optimistic about short-run, but likely pessimistic on long run (migrants will improve relatively)

wokey42.bsky.social•3 days ago

Immigrants are net contributors to the public purse and subsidise some of these halfwits who are fit enough to attend protests but not to do any work.

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