Looking to next Tues-Wed winter storm potential: one of the reasons for an increasing signal on guidance is the agreement on strong ridges in AK/east of Greenland & potent troughs south of Greenland & in the western U.S. These anchor points provide some synoptic-scale stability. - ThreadSky

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wxmvpete.bsky.social • 55 days ago

Looking to next Tues-Wed winter storm potential: one of the reasons for an increasing signal on guidance is the agreement on strong ridges in AK/east of Greenland & potent troughs south of Greenland & in the western U.S. These anchor points provide some synoptic-scale stability.

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wxmvpete.bsky.social•55 days ago

Where upper-level heights tighten over the eastern U.S., a robust 250mb jet streak takes shape. While ensemble means disagree on placement, the divergent right-entrance region is placed ideally in the Southeast. Plus, an anomalous IVT will direct plenty of moisture northeastward.

wxmvpete.bsky.social•55 days ago

Illustrating the favorable upper-level ascent beneath the 250mb right-entrance region, @burgwx.bsky.social
's 700mb Q-Vector via the 12Z ECWMF shows strong mid-level convergence. With many ensembles showing this scenario at a synoptic-scale, that's why the "signal" is becoming more pronounced.

wxmvpete.bsky.social•55 days ago

However, the subtle details matter. IQR skewness shows modest disagreement in several features: strength/speed of the 500mb trough south of Greenland, confluent zone over the Northeast, depth/position of the emerging southwest U.S. trough. That N. ATL low is also quite unclear.

wxmvpete.bsky.social•55 days ago

It's going to be a long 5-6 days of monitoring guidance. Some of the bigger Northeast snow storms have been identified beyond Day 7 given those synoptic-scale drivers mentioned. That said, the intricate details can make all the difference in 50-200 mile shifts in storm track.

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