As someone trained as a trade economist, it is my duty to share the 1929-1933 Kindleberger Spiral, showing the month-month decline in global trade due to the combined factors of the (global) Great Depression and retaliatory tariffs. Smooth Hawley is implemented mid-June 1930.
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Furthermore this somewhat underestimates the negative delayed effects
The decision to reintroduce tariffs reflects a gross error and reflects poorly on your treasury secretary
On one hand, there's a lot more trade of goods already produced in the USA, for example cars ("intra-industry trade"). That could cause a faster collapse.
On the other, manufacturing is split into stages which are now parts of trade, which could reduce the collapse speed.
Fast.
The EU isn't going to put tariffs in Canada and China this time tho?
[not an expert so tell me if I'm talking out me arse]
Example: EU manufactures part of a good, then sends it to Canada for further manufacturing, which tgen sends it to the USA. By placing tariffs of Canada, the EU-Canada may fall as well.
https://bsky.app/profile/bengolub.bsky.social/post/3lh73aijjxk2z
I think a trade war will be bad, but ultimately worse for the US, and it's only one of two or three major economic crises they are going to have
And what comes next? Declare war?
I’m certainly not an economist but I fear these actions are strengthening a pathway to a severe financial depression
You’ve been struck by —
A Smooth Hawley Act
Craft or create is something a person of remote intelligence would do.
What will historians call these ridiculous modern times?
"The Musk Flush?"
"The Trump Crevasse?"
"The Krazy Kindergarden Kollapse"