I listened to the latest @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast yesterday, on the “diplomatic” wrangling over Ukraine’s future: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w... It made stark the many parallels between these developments & the negotiations to end the war in #Afghanistan. A 🧵 on those. 1/n - ThreadSky

jjschroden.bsky.social • 2 days ago

I listened to the latest @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast yesterday, on the “diplomatic” wrangling over Ukraine’s future: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000696797256

It made stark the many parallels between these developments & the negotiations to end the war in #Afghanistan. A 🧵 on those. 1/n

Comments

jjschroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

First, in both cases President Trump wanted a deal, and fast. He pushed his subordinates to get a deal done & used a combination of public & private pressure to try to keep things moving. 2/n

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1038651

jjschroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

Second, part of his motivation in both cases was a desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize (as Obama had before him). 3/n

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-really-wants-win-nobel-peace-prize-rcna193330

jjschroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

Third, in both cases, advisors to Trump got him excited about the prospect of making US support contingent on exploitation of the country’s mineral wealth (for #Afghanistan, that was Erik Prince’s proposal to privatize the war). 4/n

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2018/09/05/heres-the-blueprint-for-erik-princes-5-billion-plan-to-privatize-the-afghanistan-war/

jjschroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

Fourth, in both cases, Trump decided to negotiate directly with the warring adversary, leaving the US partner out of the room while deciding its fate. In both cases, this greatly angered the partner’s leaders. 5/n

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna983326

jjschroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

Fifth, in both cases, a deal was almost reached at one point, but then fell apart due to perceived slights against President Trump. 6/n

https://www.voanews.com/amp/usa_taliban-denounce-trumps-move-call-peace-talks-claim-us-will-return-negotiate/6175379.html

jjschroden.bsky.social•2 days ago

Sixth, in both cases, a deal was supposed to be contingent on a comprehensive ceasefire (for #Afghanistan, this didn’t happen; the US eventually accepted a pledge of no attacks on US forces & a Taliban verbal promise to reduce violence against Afghans).

7/n

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/world/asia/taliban-peace-deal-afghanistan.html

hugogrotiusghost.bsky.social•2 days ago

Let’s not forget the SDF in 2019

ssccaavvookk.bsky.social•1 day ago

The Afghans were not left out of the negotiations though. The US excluding the Afghans resulted in individual deals being negotiated with the Taliban by every level of command by ANA and ANP forces. Those were the real negotiations. Trump was just being played like the fool he is.

roryr6.bsky.social•2 days ago

History does rhyme, America has a king again

992cup.bsky.social•2 days ago

Totally agree and very well written but there's a very,and a very important one,difference between the 2 cases: zero american casualties in Ukr,and zero american soldiers,soldiers,not volounteers,involved in fighting

Posting Rules

Be respectful to others
No spam or self-promotion
Stay on topic
Follow Bluesky's terms of service

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply