Andrew Bailey is right. Most people don't realise how shockingly *bad* is the UK's goods trade performance after Brexit and the pandemic. UK exports are 23% lower than the pre-2020 trend and imports are 16% below the trend.
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The thing is, Brexiteers are purposely blind to any short comings of Brexit. People never want to admit they are wrong, even when the evidence is plain to see. They would likely share a graph about GDP where were are ahead of France in some regard, ignoring the fact that we could be doing better.
But but but, what about the pandemic, I hear you ask.
Here is my answer: when we compare the UK's goods trade, as a percentage of GDP, to other G7 economies (none of which avoided the pandemic), the UK stands out as an outlier. In both exports and imports of goods.
Any clues as to whether substitution within EU and UK markets due to pandemic bottlenecks accelerated trends? That seems likely, and not something that would reverse.
Depressing but inevitable. Would I be right to think that having higher imports than exports will also negatively impact our deficit at a time when we have whopping debt?
You were correct about Jessop. In addition to some useful economics contacts whom I have chosen to follow, I also found these ⬇️ among those who Jessop follows.
its working exactly as the russians wanted bexit to do to you
they now have trump full on to wreck the usa
next up is canada AND CONSERVATIVE PARTY
we canada smarten up?
Maps to GDP pCppp. Worst covid dip, sharp recovery but never recovers to pre Brexit levels or the EU as a whole. Woeful growth, and not sure I see where new growth coming from.
UK lost most of the Irish trade. Which is bad for both.
I haven't bought anything off the UK since brexit, customs are crippling. Before that, I would buy something online maybe once a week
Even if we rejoined the EU tomorrow it would take years to rebuild the lost output. We’re never going to rejoin and as such the output is lost never to return
Most people do realise, the problem is @teamlabouruk.bsky.social is paralysed.
They can't go against the will of the people.
But the people want to rejoin, the will has changed, give us a referendum on the single market, you can't grow the economy without the EU. Reform/Tories will blame Labour!
And despite the likes of John Redwood crowing about growth of services both to the EU and the US, there’s a correlation between supply of goods and the supply of services. Free of duty in the EU or new Tariffs in the US does not makes services a simple replacement for the lost presence of goods.
It is really worrying isn’t it? And given events on the other side of the Atlantic we absolutely have to align ourselves firmly with Europe. We must throw off the shackles of Brexit & be both purposeful & quick about it. There’s no time to lose in my opinion
The government needs to grab hold of the narrative and tie it to their desire for closer links with EU. We have pussyfooted around Brexiteers for long enough.
Maybe things will perk up for the UK after felon Trump disrupts the US 7 Trillion dollar global trade market with his pay-to-get-tariff-waivers grift plan.
We've all gone through the covid, Ukraine,the later is still on going, climate change has also had an impact on production, buying because people are paying more attention to the their money. We still buy goods though. If GB stopped being so racist towards other countries in Europe they'd do better.
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but... that CANT be right, yeah?
When a country is heavily dependent upon imports - from food to electronic chips and much more - losing export and foreign income is - big time - BAD.
Looks worse than flatlining.
A fate worse than death!
Here is my answer: when we compare the UK's goods trade, as a percentage of GDP, to other G7 economies (none of which avoided the pandemic), the UK stands out as an outlier. In both exports and imports of goods.
Might be a long wait as we’re not on St Elmo's Skipfire.
We're not very smart.
they now have trump full on to wreck the usa
next up is canada AND CONSERVATIVE PARTY
we canada smarten up?
Might as well polish a huge turd.
True madness.
Is this an after effect of the pandemic that other European nations have recovered from or is this unique to the UK?
Remember that Johnson had an "oven baked deal", but forgot to switch the oven to ON!
Pity that his Memoirs are a poor seller !!
I haven't bought anything off the UK since brexit, customs are crippling. Before that, I would buy something online maybe once a week
They can't go against the will of the people.
But the people want to rejoin, the will has changed, give us a referendum on the single market, you can't grow the economy without the EU. Reform/Tories will blame Labour!
Services does not create many jobs in Mid nor North England.
It isn't only about money, it's about people's jobs too.
https://bsky.app/profile/thomsampson.bsky.social/post/3kv5745j7ut27
https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm
UK 3rd from bottom GDP growth from 2016, above Mexico and South Africa
https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-goods.htm#indicator-chart
UK, 2nd from bottom in % growth in goods exported Q1-2016-Q2-2023 above Luxembourg