An important new study, out today, uses the latest physical & social science -- also meta-review machine-learning something something -- to reassess the social cost of carbon. TL;DR: it's $280/ton, way higher than EPA's $190. www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news... - ThreadSky

volts.wtf • 76 days ago

An important new study, out today, uses the latest physical & social science -- also meta-review machine-learning something something -- to reassess the social cost of carbon.

TL;DR: it's $280/ton, way higher than EPA's $190.

https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/high-cost-carbon

Comments

rockyrex.bsky.social•75 days ago

Accumulating the plant material that became ONE typical coal seam took perhaps 100,000 years of photosynthesis in ancient forests. That's how slowly these materials were made.

boboxide.bsky.social•75 days ago

That won't matter for about 1,000 years of total environmental wilderness.

volts.wtf•76 days ago

"Together, they reviewed 1,800 estimates of the SCC from the academic literature over the past 20 years, conducted a broad expert survey, and then used machine learning to produce a 'best estimate' that integrates both, in an innovative analysis that goes far beyond a typical meta-analysis."

webrant.bsky.social•76 days ago

So they're using something that wastes enormous amounts of energy to tell us the resulting carbon pollution is much worse than we were told?

https://bsky.app/profile/volts.wtf/post/3ldjs7svun22s

mtobis.bsky.social•75 days ago

There is no bound to the SCC; it's contingent on how much has been emitted to date. Any sensible SCC is impermanent and will climb fast (*far* faster than inflation) as long as emissions continue.

I don't think having an SCC number is helpful. It's deceptive; makes things look easier than they are.

lnkii.bsky.social•76 days ago

📌

megmegsmeggie.bsky.social•75 days ago

📌

surfswamy.bsky.social•75 days ago

Curious to check this out. In my experience, the big driving factors of SCC are the type of model used to estimate future damages and discount rate assumptions.

vwarheit.bsky.social•75 days ago

$283/ton, actually - in 2020 dollars. Which in 2024 dollars is $345. 🙃https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2020?amount=283

jpv.switch.box•75 days ago

Fun fact: the "high" allowance price scenario that New York modeled for the state's planned cap-and-trade system climbs to ~$80/ton by 2035. The "low" price scenario ends by $40/ton. If it gets implemented, the pice ceiling could be lower than the low.

bluememe.bsky.social•75 days ago

Hundreds of billions in profits depend on us all ignoring such externalities.

johnbonitz.bsky.social•75 days ago

Thanks for the heads-up, @volts.wtf .

Interestingly, that cover photo is not fossil coal, it's carbonized wood. Embiggen and you can see the wood grain. It's biochar!