Here's our final Christmas Day forecast. If nobody is testing/isolating... 🔹1 in 8 chance of an exposure in a family gathering of 10 people 🔹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a restaurant near 30 people 🔹3 out of 4 chance on a plane of >100 people - ThreadSky

michael-hoerger.bsky.social • 66 days ago

Here's our final Christmas Day forecast. If nobody is testing/isolating...

🔹1 in 8 chance of an exposure in a family gathering of 10 people
🔹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a restaurant near 30 people
🔹3 out of 4 chance on a plane of >100 people

Comments

redwoodgirl.bsky.social•66 days ago

📌

lizziebeth.bsky.social•66 days ago

📌

gayfabfourfan.bsky.social•65 days ago

Thank you for posting this here, Mike! Happy (safe) holidays.

londoner007.bsky.social•65 days ago

📌

mega-g.bsky.social•64 days ago

Better cancel the inauguration.

turningphrases.bsky.social•65 days ago

I'll just leave my mask on, I don't trust anyone to care about protecting others anymore 😷

lavendersalve.bsky.social•65 days ago

Yup, america has hit peak selfishness.

andrebn.bsky.social•65 days ago

📌

bmcc724.bsky.social•65 days ago

The perks of being anti social

andrew-john.bsky.social•65 days ago

I wouldnt mind being antisocial wif you 🌹🍷

bmcc724.bsky.social•65 days ago

And my terrific husband.

sporkinum.bsky.social•65 days ago

I work in a hospital and we are having our radiology Christmas party today. I'm sure the likely hood is higher here due to constant contact with sick patients and no staff masking. I'll get my food and take it back to my office.

excitedgiraffe.bsky.social•61 days ago

This is a really helpful visualization! I had been looking at https://www.microcovid.org before. Even if you enter an extreme scenario (delta era levels of transmission, no masks/tests, inside, 10+ people) it spits out much lower numbers (2%). Are you able to understand where the difference comes from?

michael-hoerger.bsky.social•60 days ago

Never heard of that before today. Looks like they are using reported cases, uncorrected for surveillance bias.

excitedgiraffe.bsky.social•60 days ago

Thanks, that’s helpful. It’s always hard for me to square the numbers/risk with a country where virtually no precautions are being taken anymore. 🙃

excitedgiraffe.bsky.social•61 days ago

I'm not doubting your numbers, but I'm trying to understand why they are so much higher than other estimates that I had seen before (eg https://19andme.covid19.mathematica.org/ and the microcovid project I linked earlier).

sassysue2.bsky.social•66 days ago

I got COVID (I’m fully vaccinated) while on a plane in August 2023. I masked on my way to visit a friend who was dying from a lung disease. We stayed in her daughter’s home, keeping away from others, during my entire visit. I didn’t mask on the plane home. Now I wear a mask when traveling.

cmtroy205.bsky.social•66 days ago

📌

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