The Russian Ruble (black) has risen back to pre-invasion levels, even as global oil prices have fallen sharply (blue). This is markets expecting Russia sanctions to be lifted. The EU can stop this. Quit dithering and sanction all of Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic. What are you waiting for? - ThreadSky

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robin-j-brooks.bsky.social • 2 days ago

The Russian Ruble (black) has risen back to pre-invasion levels, even as global oil prices have fallen sharply (blue). This is markets expecting Russia sanctions to be lifted. The EU can stop this. Quit dithering and sanction all of Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic. What are you waiting for?

Comments

martincigan.bsky.social•2 days ago

Exchange rate of RUB is fully managed. It did not appreciate. It was revalued by actions of the central bank.

robin-j-brooks.bsky.social•2 days ago

Any managed currency - and the RUB is obviously managed - will ultimately reflect fundamentals. That’s why the Runle weakened after the invasion and why it’s now strengthening. The disconnect from global oil prices in that regard is especially interesting. Markets expect sanctions to be lifted…

martincigan.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think you are contradicting yourself. A managed currency does not have to reflect fundamentals if it is kept artificially weaker. I think this is your thesis with the Taiwan, PRC, etc. When the situation is otherwise, the fundamentals will be reflected, but only in time. Not yet.

charliehorsephotos.bsky.social•2 days ago

America has slid into alliance with the BRICS, movement against Russia would be against China and India as well.

gimli999.bsky.social•1 day ago

Can/Does anyone buy rubles? If the conversion rate is only relevant inside RU, this might be due to the fact they are running out of foreign assets they can convert to worthless rubles.

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