robin-j-brooks.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

US tariffs trapped a wall of goods in China. Some of them are trying to get out via 3rd countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. A rise in China's exports to these places offsets half the drop in its direct exports to the US. Russians know how to transship. So do Chinese.

submitted 5 hours ago • 2 comments

China's exports to the US fell -25% in Apr. '25 from Mar. '25 in seasonally adjusted Chinese data. That's a drop comparable to COVID in early 2020. Meanwhile, China's imports from the US rose +10%. This relationship is massively asymmetric. China needs the US more than the US needs China...

submitted 10 hours ago • 1 comment

The Dollar hasn't done nearly as badly as headline numbers suggest. Best way to see that is to look at the Dollar vs EM (blue), which is basically flat since Nov. 5. This EM perspective filters out German fiscal stimulus on Mar. 4, which makes USD look weaker than it really is...

submitted 10 hours ago • 1 comment

The EU talks out of both sides of its mouth on Russia. It talks tough, but is really just chasing Russian cash. Greece sells Russia oil tankers for its shadow fleet. Germany sells cars to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. And Denmark sells 1,000 hotel beds every month to visiting Russian "tourists." Come on...

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

There's a lot of talk how the US is losing its reserve currency status. Most of that talk is wishful thinking and misguided, but there are signs a risk premium is building in longer-term US Treasury yields, which are not down much as growth weakens. @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/articles/is-...

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

There's been NO fall whatsoever in Russian tourist arrivals into Germany since the Ukraine invasion. There was a big drop in 2020 during COVID, but there's now around 10,000 Russians entering Germany every month, which is UP from from late 2021 just before the invasion. Germany, what are you doing?

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

Negotiations are underway inside the EU to renew Russia sanctions. Hungary (lhs) and Slovakia (rhs) are pushing to lift sanctions, especially those on Putin's vile collection of oligarchs. Hungary and Slovakia do Putin's bidding inside the EU. Both countries must be stripped of any EU voting power.

submitted 1 day ago • 3 comments

Russia's tax revenues from oil are $33 bn so far in 2025. Senator John McCain once said: "Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country." The EU can shut down this gas station by sanctioning Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic. But all we get is dithering as Russia keeps killing in Ukraine...

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

I'm not sure how I feel about working until an older age. People are living longer but this feels like a violation of the social contract. We've gone from retiring with a pension to work until you die.

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Migration into Germany fell to near zero in Dec. '25, but that's just the usual seasonal pattern whereby immigration slows towards the end of the year (the influx of refugees from Ukraine disrupted that pattern). This issue will decide if politics in Germany tips and AfD becomes strongest party...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

I’ve never been this close to a rainbow before. Am currently looking for the pot of gold near the Balducci’s on Old Georgetown Road in Bethesda, if anyone cares to help…

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Whatever you think about immigration, the current administration is clearly demonstrating that the Southern US border is enforceable. We just got data for April 2025, which marks the third month in a row where "encounters" on the Southwest land border were almost down to zero...

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

In the first 4 months of 2025, Italy's cash deficit is the second highest EVER after 2024. The ECB in the past intervened to cap Italian yields, which inevitably now incentivizes bad behavior. If you want Italy to get its debt under control, the ECB needs to be prevented from capping Italian yields.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Immigration is often portrayed as an inevitability in aging Western countries. But Japan shows that a rapidly aging society can get by with minimal immigration. People just work longer. This is especially relevant for Europe, where labor force participation for those 75+ is extremely low...

submitted 2 days ago • 13 comments

Lots of boosterism of China among Western commentators, similar to all the "Fortress Russia" talk after Putin's Ukraine invasion. The fact is that China is uniquely vulnerable to US tariffs. Its export growth depends massively on the West. Russia is too much too small to ever be of help to China...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

The Russian Ruble (black) has risen back to pre-invasion levels, even as global oil prices have fallen sharply (blue). This is markets expecting Russia sanctions to be lifted. The EU can stop this. Quit dithering and sanction all of Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic. What are you waiting for?

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

The real 10-year US Treasury yield is now the highest since 2009. That's going under the radar with all the tariff headlines and recession fears, but it's perhaps the single most important development. Budget deficits are out of control everywhere - not just in the US - and real rates are rising...

submitted 2 days ago • 2 comments

Net new issuance of short-term debt (red) by the US Treasury has been consistently negative since Trump came into office, so we're seeing a normalization in debt issuance back to medium- and long-term issuance (blue). This fixes one of the odder legacies of the previous administration and is good...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Dollar pegs are a very bad idea in general for emerging markets, but especially so in a global trade war. But - thanks to the fall in the Dollar since "Liberation Day" - EM pegs are so far doing alright. The weak Dollar means these peggers are importing depreciation even though they're pegged...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

OPEC cut production multiple times after Russia invaded Ukraine, putting a floor under global oil prices and helping Putin pull in a massive windfall from high energy prices. That truly makes OPEC a cartel worth breaking. The US is doing its absolute best to get that done...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

US tariffs are causing China's manufacturing sector to burst at the seams. This is doing two things: (i) China's exports to all kinds of random places - here's Cambodia - are reaching new all-time highs; (ii) there's now massive excess capacity, which means China is hurtling towards deflation...

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Not now, Greenland. Not now...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The last time the US imposed tariffs - in 2018 - the Dollar surged. It's the reverse now, with the Dollar cratering (lhs). The reason for this is clear: rate differentials have moved massively against USD (rhs). Why they've done so is far less clear. Weren't tariffs supposed to be inflationary???

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

Friedrich Merz is a courageous politician and a good man, but the CDU's grand coalition with SPD - a broken and discredited party - is a disaster. You can see that in the AfD's rise since the election. Countering this rise is the only thing that matters and that just isn't possible with the SPD...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The best performing EM currency in 2025 isn't Taiwan's Dollar or Korea's Won. It's Russia's Ruble, as markets expect that Western sanctions will be lifted. The EU needs to stop dithering and show markets what's what. Sanction more Russian shadow fleet ships in the Baltic. What are you waiting for?

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

This is correct.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Looking forward to buying some new Nikes at £2.50 and smuggling them for resale into the US.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Il a complètement raison !

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

The EU will not become an effective foreign policy actor until it finds a way to kick out Hungary. Hungary aligned itself with Russia after the terrible invasion of Ukraine and now is aligning itself with China as the Chinese export machine sends floods of goods all over the place. Enough already...

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

US tariffs mean Chinese goods will start flooding all kinds of other countries, because China now has huge excess capacity in manufacturing. Two places where this flood of goods is already happening are the UK (blue) and Brazil (black). This is a sign that US tariffs are really hurting China...

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

It takes literally no time to find evidence of mounting Chinese transshipments of goods to the US. Here's seasonally adjusted export data from China to Thailand (blue) and Vietnam (black), which are well-known hubs for transshipment from Trump's first term. A sign China is hurting under US tariffs.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Trade data across all of Central Asia and the Caucasus have gone nuts since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Here's Georgian export data for example. Exports to Russia are flat (black), but exports to Kyrgyzstan (orange) and Kazakhstan (red) have gone completely nuts. All this stuff is going to Russia.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

This year's fall in Urals oil price is highly unusual (purple) and takes Urals to near its recent historical lows. Now is the time for the EU to stop dithering and sanction more of Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic. That will drive Urals down even further and really hurt Russia's war machine...

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments