So here’s my morning after immediate analysis of why Yoon Suk Yeol’s self coup of December 3-4, 2024 failed. I’ll try to highlight 5 things, but they are not mutually exclusive. 1/
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First, I think a lot must be said of the Korean people’s commitment to democracy. When martial law was declared, the most common immediate reaction seemed to be that Yoon was nuts because declaring martial law would never succeed and he would be forced from office. 2/
I think this reaction by so many people, myself included, was possible because they knew the Korean people would not accept military rule. Korea has seen how that works and rejected it. It was an unacceptable outcome to nearly all Korean people. And that’s why no one expected Yoon to do this. 3/
Also reassuring - my first thought upon reading that breaking news was, “if they’re accepting this, it’s going to seriously shake up my preconceptions about S. Korea”
Second, Yoon is a deeply unpopular president. His approval rating most recently was around 25%. Conservative media has been criticizing him harshly for months. A movement was underway to impeach him that had a large following despite its modest chance at success (pre coup that is). 4/
Yoon was so unpopular his party lost the 2024 general election to an opposition party whose leader was charged with several crimes (he was recently found guilty of violating election laws). Nobody wanted to stick their neck out, break laws, risk jail or worse for somebody they dislike. 5/
Third, we’ll need more information about what happened among the troops at the National Assembly, but the coup essentially failed when lawmakers gained access to the building and the military left after the National Assembly passed its resolution declaring martial law invalid. 6/
The military could have forcefully barricaded the building, used violence to expel or arrest lawmakers, or refused to leave after the resolution was passed. None of that happened. Individual commanders and troops should be commended for this. Without their actions things may have been different 7/
A very helpful thread. Thank you. Only having a US lay person's understanding of ROK politics, it seemed, as u say, a terrible sign when the leader of his own party released a "fuck no" right off the bat. It just doesn't seem like he had any national stakeholding groups lined up in support of this.
I wonder whether those people who valued their democracy enough to take to the streets in the middle of the night will vote their insurrectionist back into office.
So my big takeaway from this is that 1. military rule is still in living memory in SK so people want no part of it and 2. Yoon massively overestimated how much support he had.
I am only learning pretty much anything about this today, but he doesn't seem very smart. Selfish people often don't seem to think of other people as people, just as tools. 'oh, if I order the military, I win.' The military is made of people.
ftr he's clearly been making attempts to staff the military with loyalists since he got into power, incl. his relocation of the presidential offices to be nearer to them
but the man likes (and desperately overestimates the power of, as a trial lawyer) showy maneuvers
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It's concerning that Yoon very much modelled himself on Trump. I wonder to what extent Trump is watching avd learning?
Like we did.
Do we deserve our democracy?
I am only learning pretty much anything about this today, but he doesn't seem very smart. Selfish people often don't seem to think of other people as people, just as tools. 'oh, if I order the military, I win.' The military is made of people.
but the man likes (and desperately overestimates the power of, as a trial lawyer) showy maneuvers