With 2024 coming in at or above #1o5C, and a run of 12 months to June 2024 where monthly warming was at or above 1.5°C, questions are coming about whether or not the longer-term 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement has been reached. 2 papers out today look at these Qs. 🧵👇 - ThreadSky

climateanalytics.bsky.social • 18 days ago

With 2024 coming in at or above #1o5C, and a run of 12 months to June 2024 where monthly warming was at or above 1.5°C, questions are coming about whether or not the longer-term 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement has been reached.

2 papers out today look at these Qs. 🧵👇

Comments

ppf-sustainability.bsky.social•18 days ago

Trump should never have left the paris agreement.

climateanalytics.bsky.social•18 days ago

The Paris Agreement limit is a 20-year or longer average of 1.5°C above pre industrial levels. Working out if we have reached that limit from recent records also means looking at least a decade ahead at the likely warming from current trends in GHG emissions and policy settings.

climateanalytics.bsky.social•18 days ago

Paper no1 by @bevacquae.bsky.social and colleagues asks what a year where average annual global warming is at or above 1.5°C tells us about the timing of reaching or exceeding the Paris Agreement's longer-term 1.5°C limit.

The 2024 calendar year was the first such year.

climateanalytics.bsky.social•18 days ago

The paper’s conclusion is quite straightforward – unless emissions are reduced very quickly there is a very high likelihood that 2024 is within the first 20yr period where warming reaches the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

The higher emissions are in the next decade; the higher the probability.

climateanalytics.bsky.social•18 days ago

This paper also shows is that rapid emission reductions aligned with 1.5°C pathways quickly reduces the risk of annual mean warming exceeding 1.5°C after the first single year exceeding 1.5°C.

In other words, mitigation can still limit the risk of breaching the Paris Agreement limit quite quickly.

climateanalytics.bsky.social•18 days ago

The second paper by Cannon takes a different approach to a related question – what does the observation of 12 consecutive months with global mean surface temperature at 1.5°C or above mean for the likelihood of exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit?

climateanalytics.bsky.social•18 days ago

The bottom-line result is that a consecutive 12-month period with monthly warming at or above 1.5°C could indicates a 60-80% probability that the long-term global average annual warming has already reached or exceeded 1.5°C, even taking into account the extreme 2023/2024 El Niño.

cityatlas.bsky.social•18 days ago

📌

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