It is important to highlight however, such 12-month period has occurred in some global temperature datasets, but not in others. In fact, the Cannon study only relies on the two warmest records available.
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There are other caveats to the papers. Both depend on the extent to which CMIP6 models capture all climate system processes over the next decade or so (unlikely) AND consider changes in human induced greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols and other factors since 2015 (also unlikely).
CMIP6 models use historical forcing up to 2015. If greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol emissions and other factors are different after 2015, which is probably the case, further uncertainty is introduced.
Examples of recent changes include the Tonga volcanic eruption, a strong El Niño and the reduction in shipping sulphur emissions. Cannon was only able to consider a few of these factors.
There is an enormous amount of work going on trying to understand the causes of the recent extreme warming anomalies, and concern is increasing that we may be seeing the early signs of a cloud feedback effect, but this is not certain.
It is no small irony that these two important papers have been published on the day countries should've submitted updated NDCs aligned with 1.5°C. Very few countries have done their homework.
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