I'm looking at campaign finance data today, aggregating total campaign expenditures for federal candidates as a proportion of GDP. Why did we spend so much more on campaigns in 2020? (data sources @opensecretsdc.bsky.social and the Fed.) (Complied by me, graphed by ChatGPT) - ThreadSky

jenvictor.bsky.social • 47 days ago

I'm looking at campaign finance data today, aggregating total campaign expenditures for federal candidates as a proportion of GDP. Why did we spend so much more on campaigns in 2020?
(data sources @opensecretsdc.bsky.social and the Fed.) (Complied by me, graphed by ChatGPT)

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cynthiarterrell.bsky.social•47 days ago

Such an important question especially given that so few races were competitive & so few challengers won (just a couple I think) & of course fewer women in Congress than we’ve had for awhile which should point to need for electoral reform solutions — consultants are making a LOT of $$ 🙁

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

The Covid dip in GDP only partially explains the outlier. If GDP had been, say $23T rather than $21T in 2020, campaigns still would have been 6% of GDP, which is a big jump from the previous trend.

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

campaign expenditures are inflation adjusted

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

I was trying to crowdsource this, but I'm going to wind up answering my own question. In addition to Covid depressing GDP in 2020, there were a lot more candidates in 2020, rel to 2024; in 2020 Dems had a competitive primary. There were basically no competitive primaries on either side in '24.

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

One more observation: We tend to think of Citizens United (2010) as an acceleration point in US campaign finance, but this makes it look like the shift is in 2018--a Trump effect.

jonathanbernstein.bsky.social•47 days ago

Certainly plausible though that changes in law made a big increase in spending possible, but that it needed an event to actually kick in. (Although Citizens United itself could have been an event that encouraged people to take advantage of other, unrelated, possibilities).

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

Yeah, it may be that there is a meaningful lag associated with how the system changes behaviors as a result of statutory or other legal changes. I'm not sure how to falsify these hypotheses.

nathanfavero.com•47 days ago

Maybe I’m mistaken, but I also think Citizens United primarily allowed for spending to balloon thru super pacs, which aren’t in your data, right? Contributions to campaigns are still capped at fairly low levels; citizens United didn’t eliminate those caps

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

Nah. This includes all campaign expenditures, including independent expenditures which are mostly Super PACs.

beatorganizer.bsky.social•47 days ago

FWIW, Citizens United and the FEC's more lenient coordination rules in 2024 did allow Trump to invert the typical campaign/IE spending ratio. Pro-Trump IEs also exceeded his campaign's previous spending highs.

dwillis.bsky.social•47 days ago

In addition to the Dem primary, my first thought was maybe that mailers became a more important campaign method, and mail is expensive.

kwcollins.bsky.social•47 days ago

Why is 2016 so low? Had Trump, was post-CU, and had competitive primaries on both sides

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

Good question.

beatorganizer.bsky.social•47 days ago

Any effect from number of competitive seats due to Senate map and redistricting?

alexanderfurnas.com•47 days ago

I think Democrats also donated a lot more to try and beat an incumbent trump. LOTs of new/first time donors in 2020

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

On the supply side, my hypothesis is that Covid lowered the costs of political organizing that year because of online tools. On the demand side, yeah, Trump.

alexanderfurnas.com•47 days ago

I've looked at % of US scientists donating by year and the number doubles in 2020

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

whoa. Interesting. Any ideas why?

alexanderfurnas.com•47 days ago

I think it is the trump effect.
2016 nobody took him seriously, 2020 was all hands on deck to beat him as an incumbent, 2024 enthusiasm down vibes cursed + disbelief

but im just speculating

jenvictor.bsky.social•47 days ago

Yeah, I have the same sense of things.

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