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jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/ Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.
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I want some of the laid off workers to run for office in 2026 and win.

Agree

Could totally be a coincidence that the blatantly racist and misogynistic President and SecDef did this

Meanwhile my HEB grocery this afternoon was setting up their (excellent) Pesach display and yes, I know, it's not even Purim yet but we're expecting decent-sized seders and a full house this year for the whole week and what I'm saying is this eggs things is about to get serious.

I wrote today about Trump's declining popularity, why it matters, and related points. Plus the week's links, with @profsaunders.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @donmoyn.bsky.social @danigilbert.bsky.social @himself.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social and many more.

these people are demented

Don't y'all watch Sound of Music and Casablanca with your kids? Of course Indiana Jones. (I don't think we watched The Producers with our kids, or either version of To Be...). I think one of our kids saw Cabaret on Broadway.

Powell and the rest of them must be just... I mean they did a wonderful job over the last five years, and now it's all going to crap overnight and there's really not much they can do about it. Wondering if they should be sending out serious SOS alarms, or if that would just make things worse.

Strong disagree. You need to show up, and not shout them down, but communicate the harms that these constitutional violations are causing the community. Screaming at them will make it too easy for them to write you off as crazy.

All these new polls showing majorities disapproving of Trump, and Elon Musk faring even worse, really undermine one of the dumber narratives of the moment: That "disruption" is automatically good for Trump. Check out my exchange with @juliaazari.bsky.social on this: newrepublic.com/article/1917...

With the German election looming (23 February), I am re-upping this post about the new electoral system, and why it no longer fits the proper definition of a mixed-member system. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/02/21/g...

As always, the time remaining doesn't have to be a big deal; they can always pass short-term extensions. And there's never been an accidental shutdown. Shouldn't happen now. Probably won't. But it's still not easy to see where the House majority comes from to avoid this.

Agree and also it was never really transactional, in Trump’s view. He wanted a protection racket. His advisers tried to restrain him in the first term. This time he’s not letting anyone stop him.

That may not be the only thing that's happening with the CBS lawsuit, but surely it's part of it. Not just there, either. Why it was (and is) worth correcting the "landslide" myth-making, and why Trump's deep lack of popularity can matter.

Janeway hates time travel, but she knows how to do it and seems reasonably likely she might get involved with this nonsense. In the unlikely event Pelosi needs a hand.

Join us NEXT WEDNESDAY for a panel on the results of the German Federal Elections with @profterrig.bsky.social , Sabrina Zajak, @andrearoemmele.bsky.social , Mia Fuller and Akasemi Newsome: events.berkeley.edu/ies/event/28... Co-sponsors: @ghiwashington.bsky.social UCB German UCB Political Science

Calling yourself a king doesn't make you a king. Pushing a button and talking in the past and not the present tense makes you a king.

[Opens mlb.com tab, pins it, positions it properly on browser]

Seriously they're Washington Monumenting themselves: Picking big, obvious stuff that people care about and making sure everyone knows that they took it away. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/trump-wash...

ALERT: The Chelsea Curve's wonderful 2022 album "All the Things" is back on Spotify! If you like the rock'n'roll...

Note that Education is 2-1 in favor of either expanded or remain the same, despite Trump and others rallying partisans to oppose it. Even USAID has a plurality for expanded/same over reduced/eliminated. (Cutting spending in the abstract is popular; cutting specific programs almost never is).

Presidents do not "typically" impound funds for entire agencies and close them in contravention of the law.

Just can't fathom how weak a president has to turn the WH briefing room over to ads for his most prominent and widely unpopular adviser's niche unpopular business. (With the constant disclaimer that presidential weakness doesn't mean he's not extremely dangerous. Quite the contrary.)

Let's check in on Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene R-GA today

at best, Trump has soured GOP voters somewhat on Zelensky

Still waiting for the 538 update and he might not be under water yet in their estimate, but this one and CNN's this morning makes *five* brutal polls released in the last two days, although he was still on the plus side from YouGov/Economist (and earlier some more sketchy ones).

Very important to establish norms and expectations now, so the costs of deviating from those norms are clear to all the parties See below => this is as close as you can get to an overwhelming public consensus

What does Elon Musk think he’s doing? No really, I have no idea. My new piece: open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...

Yup. The GOP was bad long before 2016. It was bad in 2009 when I started blogging about it. It was bad in 2006 when Tom Mann and @normornstein.bsky.social wrote The Broken Branch. It was bad at least from the 1990s on, when it was the party of Newt and Rush. And it just got worse, worse, and worse.

DOD 40% BUDGET CUT, process thoughts: Telling the Services to plan a massive cut in one week with neither one's Pentagon strategy & budget appointees in place nor detailed planning guidance out (I assume) is not setting up for success, and more likely to facilitate Service preferences 1/

Hot take: SpaceX's Falcon 9 reentry demisability problems—the latest, a COPV, just landed Poland—alongside the Starship debris issues in the Gulf of Mexico, will pose a larger problem to the company than people might think.