Our new paper on the June 2023 Mexico-Texas heat wave is out today in Geophysical Research Letters! Co-led by @climatechirper.bsky.social and with collaborators Mingfang Ting and @dustybowl.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... [Thread] - ThreadSky

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dmitri-climate.bsky.social • 1 day ago

Our new paper on the June 2023 Mexico-Texas heat wave is out today in Geophysical Research Letters!

Co-led by @climatechirper.bsky.social and with collaborators Mingfang Ting and @dustybowl.bsky.social:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114987

[Thread]

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dmitri-climate.bsky.social•1 day ago

[1] The heat wave that affected Mexico and Texas during mid-late June 2023 was the hottest, largest, and longest-lasting in the region since at least 1940. Numerous all-time records were broken including 114°F in San Angelo, Texas, and 42.0°C in Chihuahua, Mexico.

dmitri-climate.bsky.social•1 day ago

[2] Domain-average maximum temperatures peaked on June 20th, 2023, averaging 36.7°C over Mexico and Texas - an area encompassing 2.5 million square km. This represented a +3.52 sigma departure from the 1991-2020 normals.

dmitri-climate.bsky.social•1 day ago

[3] Concurrent with the record heat, soil moisture was also at all-time record lows over the April-September season (since 1940), reaching -2.72 sigma departure on June 21st, 2023.

dmitri-climate.bsky.social•1 day ago

[4] Using a "constructed analogs" approach conditioned on past similar circulation patterns, we found that the contribution of low soil moisture and its interaction with strong high pressure ridging contributed more than half (57%) of the maximum temperature anomaly on June 20th.

dmitri-climate.bsky.social•1 day ago

[5] Using the CESM2 large ensemble climate model, we project that similar circulation patterns to June 20th, 2023 will not occur more frequently by the mid-21s century (2040-2060), but will be nearly 2°C hotter when they occur with temperatures possibly exceeding 50°C/122°F in south Texas.

leonsimons.bsky.social•1 day ago

Under SSP3-7.0, you'll likely miss increased warming from desulphurization.

As SSP3-7.0 is the 'most wrong' with regards to global SO₂ emissions:

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