I'm still skeptical he'll do some kind of "across the board" tariffs. I guess he could out of spite. But for the most part he will do what the oligarchs want. They're the ones with the check books.
He'll do some "show" tariffs and brag about it just to say to his base he's keeping his promise.
who knows whether he will do tariffs. With Trump unpredictability is the entire thing. But of course there was an executive order on tariffs starting at the beginning of next month.
Also, after Trump's (1st) bilateral tariffs against China, China's trade surplus continued to grow and the US's trade deficit continued to grow, though just not with each other.
The purpose of the tariffs is to provide a shakedown scenario for personal bribes for exemptions, to Trump from investors. It isn't a trade policy. Get real please.
"Canada in particular will find it hard to “stop” massive border violations because they aren’t happening..." A brilliant Trump strategy. Create a horrible, imaginary problem, and then take credit for vanquishing the problem.
He really thinks raising tariffs will result in expanded domestic manufacturing? Full employment + deporting masses of immigrants, where does he think the workforce will come from?
While I do think this is mostly bluster, I expect markets to decline this year just on the uncertainty he creates.
Your article in the NYT explaining the 2008 crash made a big difference to me, and I've read your articles with interest ever since. Thank you for making "the dismal science" understandable.
The Black Market Is Already Exploding In The US, As Detours Around Customs Make It Impossible To Excise Tariffs On Most Products. Even Passenger Airlines Are Smuggling Products From Around The Globe, Like They Have For 50 Years.
It's all smoke and mirrors with a dusting of glitter and spinning circuses to entertain lazy minds. Honestly, they have invited the burglars into their homes, showed them the safe, allowing them to take whatever they fancy. I think they'll even invite them back for a Sunday dinner to say thank you!
So much better than the Washington Post articles on the economic impact of Trumpism (I'm one of those that dropped my subscription). With a great music piece to start this very cold morning!
I’ve shifted to all treasury etfs, but honestly not even sure if that’s a safe play anymore. Dumb money has already started pouring in and the bigwigs will start offloading their shares leaving average joe holding the bag.
I'm 60/40......AI and innovation will continue. And rates may go higher.....making bonds not a great hedge. But I feel it's going to present me the opportunity when we get the inevitable 20 to 30% pullback that's inevitable.
Your better of buying Treasuries or CDs directly. ETFs will crash when rates go up like in 2021 and 22. If you own 10 yrs outright you'll get the stated interest and principle back in the end if you dont sell
The problem with Mutual funds and bond ETF's is your not sure what they will be worth in 5, 10 years or whenever you sell.
I just find the %rate and term I want and buy and hold to maturity....no loss possible that way and the interest is paid regularly into my IRA.
It’s in my IRA so can’t move it around without a bunch of fees or I would go direct treasury. Def gives me something to think about though. Maybe park it cash after the next dividend and wait. Ugh.
Well volatility in government especially within the US government takes time to manifest on Wallstreet. Its largely because the ultra wealthy are so disconnected from main street they don't understand the ramifications for mom and pop until profit margins nose dive and then they panick.
1. Russian economy -- will it break? How
2. Is it really "comparative advantage" if the country you outsourced to is poor and so labor costs are lower? That seems different than growing bananas in Hawaii rather than Alaska.
1) The Russian economy is broke. It is on life support. High Inflation. Rampant poverty. People dying and leaving.
2) There is no advantage or disadvantage. There is a balance of trade: Good flow one way, IOU's (US$'s usually) flow the other. There is nothing stopping you from growing bananas.
Currently wondering when I should sell my index funds (which I'm saving in to buy the downpayment on a mortgage!). I want to time it to just right before the market realises Trump is serious.
It's amazing to me that the markets appear to assume the looming trade wars (and I do mean multiple trade wars) will have no casualties. The markets are supposed to price things in advance. So much for efficient market theory. Oh Well.
As tariffs are enacted, I’m sure we will see the price off eggs and other foodstuffs fall and our neighbors will find better nations to buy from and sell to. BRILLIANT STRATEGY.
I'm afraid Trump will use tariffs not only as a means to adjust trade balance, but to coerce otherwise friendly nations (e.g. Denmark) to give him what he wants (e.g. Greenland). Expect a threat re pharmaceutical products (Denmark: Novo Nordisk) to get Greenland.
They are trying to make hay while the sun shines. When the tariffs hit, the markets will drop like a stone. People will start grumbling as inflation and unemployment go up and why aren't eggs 1/2 price yet?
Comments
He'll do some "show" tariffs and brag about it just to say to his base he's keeping his promise.
THROWS STICK OVER THERE
He won't do it, threat of tariffs is just a negotiating tool.
Ok, he might put some tariffs, but the effect will be negligible.
Adults in the room will talk him out of it.
Holy crap, he is actually going to start a full-blown trade war.
Market crash.
While I do think this is mostly bluster, I expect markets to decline this year just on the uncertainty he creates.
Not the psychopathic idiot.
"Twenty-Three Nobel Economists Sign Letter Saying Harris Agenda Vastly Better For U.S. Economy"
https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Joseph_Stiglitz/23%20Nobel%20Economists%20letter.pdf
I have more money in bonds than anytime in the last 20 years.
I was 100% growth ETFs until Dec.
The problem with Mutual funds and bond ETF's is your not sure what they will be worth in 5, 10 years or whenever you sell.
I just find the %rate and term I want and buy and hold to maturity....no loss possible that way and the interest is paid regularly into my IRA.
If you have 10 years or more......I'd be 100% growth and sleep like a baby. Massive innovation is happening. 🤑
everyone believes that tariffs will result in lower returns, what the trump alter universe presupposes is .. what if it doesn't ?
1. Russian economy -- will it break? How
2. Is it really "comparative advantage" if the country you outsourced to is poor and so labor costs are lower? That seems different than growing bananas in Hawaii rather than Alaska.
2) There is no advantage or disadvantage. There is a balance of trade: Good flow one way, IOU's (US$'s usually) flow the other. There is nothing stopping you from growing bananas.
Performative capitulation?
Tariff war?
cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social
https://bsky.app/profile/theglobeandmail.com/post/3lgddbtv4yq2i
Insanity...
The first one who reacts prematurely will lose. So everybody stands still waits for the first few to move.
(my naive economy guessing)