This would be something for an enterprising news outlet to empirically test. A sizeable outfit (hello, NYT/WaPo/CNN!) will surely have plenty of people with grandparents old enough and in enough different regions to give this a try. Not statistically ironclad, but will be very illustrative.
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If Aunt May doesn't get her Social Security cheque, and she can't call the SSA to complain, she's going to call her Congressman.
With DOGE's cuts, they are going to be getting a lot of calls.