FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate REALITY: 1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming 2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero" 3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail" 🧵 1/6 - ThreadSky

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org • 23 hours ago

FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6

Comments

tworooks.bsky.social•22 hours ago

depressing to see usual suspects who spend all their time policing fossil greenwash/climate misinfo. jump on this and misrepresent it to score points, the same people who spend all their time on the ‘phasing out’ piece over accelerating phasing in 100% clean energy, because they want degrowth.

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•23 hours ago

Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6

doctorvive.bsky.social•23 hours ago

Yes, but he may as well have said that net zero is doomed to fail. Ask Zeke or David Ho: there is really no way to achieve net zero with CDR without essentially phasing out nearly 100% of fossil fuels.

doctorvive.bsky.social•23 hours ago

The propaganda that we can, in fact, achieve net zero without phaseout a the favorite of the Saudis, for whom Blair has experience lobbying.

doctorvive.bsky.social•23 hours ago

Finally, to represent carbon capture as "technically feasible" despite over twenty years of its failing to capture anything close to even a majority of point source emissions is to misrepresent the challenges the technology poses as a solution.

doctorvive.bsky.social•23 hours ago

Anyway, of course the substitutes need to be built first (and simultaneously), but there is no safe future without phasing out fossil fuels in the short term, so it behooves everyone not to just dismiss that necessity as a "doomed" strategy out of hand.

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•23 hours ago

Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"

Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"

Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels"
3/6

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•23 hours ago

Dodgy headlines aside, the Blair report notes genuine challenges to the deliverability & politics of climate action, but supports techno-solutions – CCS, SMRs, DAC, etc – that are, by its own admission, "costly", "unproven", "not financially viable" or "not permanent"
4/6

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•23 hours ago

I want to raise one more specific point on the Blair report and then I'll conclude

The report paints a pessimistic picture of progress using changes to IEA coal outlooks (left)

But the graph looks rather different if you zoom out (right)

Draw your own conclusions
5/6

drsimevans.carbonbrief.org•23 hours ago

The Tony Blair Institute has now issued a statement (pic) saying the UK govt is "already pursuing" the solutions it highlights – CCS, new nuclear, etc – and that "we support the govt's 2050 net-zero targets"

The wildly inaccurate media coverage will now be corrected, right?
6/6

pwilding.bsky.social•23 hours ago

I don't disagree with anything you say but Blair knows better than anyone how communication works and in my view had been irresponsible in how this has been presented.

esavakkilainen.bsky.social•23 hours ago

IMHO BBC, albeit the headline, is saying the same thing.

mancversusfood.bsky.social•23 hours ago

Sorry but there's little point defending this. He's a canny enough man to understand what would happen when this was published. No amount of backpedaling now removes the doubt that the report has helped to sow and it'll still be used by bad actors. This is by design not accident

diaminedave.bsky.social•23 hours ago

But is CCS in any way realistic?
C storage densities?
EROEI for complete cycle....presumably the higher the storage press the greater the energy used
Total C possible to be stored ?
Geological problems caused?
Length of internment?

asiegel.bsky.social•23 hours ago

This thread reads like apologia for the TBI (Tony Blair Inst) being very TBI-like (Breakthrough Institute): Innovation Uber Alles with dissing/dismissing things that exist and are working with truthiness-language/logic throughout.

1/n

esavakkilainen.bsky.social•23 hours ago

As Tony Blair is saying, we are ashamed to say that: yes the developed Annex I countries have decreased their emissions as promised in Kyoto agreement.
Because we would at the same time admit that also developing countries need to do something.

willparker.bsky.social•23 hours ago

Would love to see the IEA solar and coal forecast errors on the same graph, with a % on the Y-axis and 2012 starting year. Paints quite a different picture.

abigaildombey.bsky.social•23 hours ago

With regard to solar, @aukehoekstra.bsky.social put this together a while ago.

upwardology.bsky.social•19 hours ago

The idea of nature-based solutions being somehow inferior because they can experience damage looks like propaganda. Done properly, they would be resilient and self-regenerating. Would artificial storage bubbles be able to say the same, even if they worked?

cprotopapas.bsky.social•10 hours ago

“Net zero is the only way” and “Net zero is doomed” is not mutually exclusive.

brixtonmc.bsky.social•23 hours ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue unroll pliz!

unroll.skywriter.blue•23 hours ago

The thread as a shareable webpage: https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:wfuybzxgaqfpzfn242rvexzb/post/3lnzrbt6n632p.

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mariosrichards.bsky.social•23 hours ago

Shame this well-meaning old guy doesn't have a background in political communication - people need to give him more slack.

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