⌛ We assessed the potential impacts of phasing out fossil fuels at points in history using 3 counterfactual scenarios with Carbon Majors emissions stopping in 1854, 1950 (when some companies were aware of the harms of their products), or 1990 (the start of international climate action efforts)…3/n - ThreadSky

scienceshaina.bsky.social • 4 days ago

⌛ We assessed the potential impacts of phasing out fossil fuels at points in history using 3 counterfactual scenarios with Carbon Majors emissions stopping in 1854, 1950 (when some companies were aware of the harms of their products), or 1990 (the start of international climate action efforts)…3/n

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scienceshaina.bsky.social•4 days ago

🌡️🌊If the Carbon Majors stopped fossil fuel production in 1854 or 1950 we find present day surface air temperature rise would have been ~0.39-0.66°C above preindustrial and CO2 concentrations below 350 ppm. The difference in projected long term sea level rise is 0.26-0.55 m ...4/n

scienceshaina.bsky.social•4 days ago

🌡️🌊If the Carbon Majors stopped FF production in 1990 we find present day surface air temperature rise would have been 0.65-0.9°C above preindustrial and CO2 concentrations would be below 370 ppm. The difference in projected long term sea level rise is 0.16-0.35 m …5/n

scienceshaina.bsky.social•4 days ago

Our research shows that products produced by a relatively small number of industrial fossil fuel producers have played a large role in altering global climate. It also shows that emissions from just a few decades are projected to have impacts to global average sea levels for centuries to come... 6/n

scienceshaina.bsky.social•4 days ago

Thermal expansion and ice sheet mass loss are the two primary drivers of sea level rise. Delays in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation will come with long-term consequences due to the long response time of the oceans and crysophere. https://blog.ucs.org/shaina-sadai/the-sea-level-rise-legacy-of-past-and-future-heat-trapping-emissions/ 7/n

scienceshaina.bsky.social•4 days ago

Higher future emissions will have higher long-term SLR. By comparing different historical counterfactuals run with various future emissions scenarios we find that long-term attribution to past emissions is robust regardless of future emissions trajectories... 8/n

scienceshaina.bsky.social•4 days ago

“Immediate and near-term mitigation is crucial to meeting global climate goals and reducing long-term impacts, such as sea level rise, which will evolve over centuries. This study underscores that the past actions of fossil fuel and cement producers will have consequences long into the future.” 9/n

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