A good start for any analysis of the United States is to accept that the federal government is now fascist. If you can not accept that your analysis will lead you wrong.
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The same logic goes for analysis of Russia. If you can not accept that Russia is out to destroy Ukraine no matter what and is not interested in peace on any other terms than Ukraine's unconditional surrender your analysis will be flawed.
The Paradise series on Disney+ is probably spot on, that if shit hits the fan on their soil, the president will go hide in a bunker, not stay and fight with his people.
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