Well, well, well. Seems not everyone agrees we must have methane-gas "firm" generation in our grids. reneweconomy.com.au/baseload-pow... - ThreadSky

doctorvive.bsky.social • 83 days ago

Well, well, well.

Seems not everyone agrees we must have methane-gas "firm" generation in our grids.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/baseload-power-generators-not-needed-to-guarantee-supply-say-science-and-engineering-academies/#google_vignette

Comments

l-bow.bsky.social•83 days ago

There's never been a technical requirement for baseload generation; it's just an economic way to run high capex plant. What we do need is dispatchable gen, usually gas, which this report still sees the need for (they call it "residual load plant"). Whether that can convert to H2 remains to be seen

l-bow.bsky.social•83 days ago

Often when people say we need baseload, they're really thinking of dispatchable gen. Inflexible plant which has to run at full output constantly is a negative characteristic in terms of grid integration, rather than a positive one, you have to make everything else fit around it

barinemiliano.bsky.social•83 days ago

This is incorrect on two fronts:
- various modeling efforts show positive effects of firm resources (≠ baseload or dispatchable) for total system costs
- inflexible is a subjective assertion, unrepresentative of operational capabilities (not the most flex, but 100-25-100 Pn 2x daily)
#EnergySky 🔌💡

l-bow.bsky.social•82 days ago

I think we're agreeing? There's positive value in firm gen, which doesn't have to be "baseload" (presumably meaning inflexible).
And yes everything can be flexed, but it really wrecked the economics of some technologies

l-bow.bsky.social•82 days ago

I'm really just saying that "we need baseload" doesn't make sense

barinemiliano.bsky.social•82 days ago

Definitely agree on that! Or the extension that we need baseload power plants to cover min demand
The high fixed / low variable costs (or CAPEX / OPEX) distinction better describes the different effects of firm resources than inflexible/flexible, as both have a role/market
https://bsky.app/profile/barinemiliano.bsky.social/post/3lcpe5er7as2a

doctorvive.bsky.social•83 days ago

Maybe we need clearer definitions of all these terms! In this JD Vance used "base load" to mean, I don't know, "basic" or "core" energy (not that they're not always distorting language, of course).

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jd-vance-harris-wages-war-on-us-energy-inflation-net-zero-2024-presidential-election-aaf19e44

l-bow.bsky.social•83 days ago

Yeah the misuse of baseload drives me nuts! Really it means minimum nighttime demand, which you can meet with any type of generation - inflexible nuclear, intermittent wind, dispatchable gas...

l-bow.bsky.social•83 days ago

Come to think of it, it's more accurate to say that nuclear needs baseload, rather than we need nuclear for baseload

l-bow.bsky.social•83 days ago

As soon as something like wind starts to cover a big chunk of nighttime demand some nights, that constant block of demand that nuclear depends on economically gets eaten into

mliebreich.bsky.social•83 days ago

This ☝️☝️☝️

ember42.bsky.social•82 days ago

The exact same statement applies to intermittent resources as well.
Both need storage and curtailment capability to fit with societies needs, but once they do thar, they can fit together anyway.

l-bow.bsky.social•82 days ago

Right, renewables are (economically) inflexible too. My argument is just that inflexibility is never a positive trait in itself, which is what "baseload" must mean applied to generation. Firm/dispatchable are positive traits we need.

l-bow.bsky.social•82 days ago

Basically everyone seems to use "baseload" to mean "firm". If anything baseload means "inflexible", which is something we have to manage, not something we need.

ember42.bsky.social•82 days ago

I prefer translating it as "baseload capable".
There are no truly inflexible generators (at scale).
Nuclear in the US is run that way for regulatory, not technical reasons. And it's low enough penetration there is no need to.

xiaowang1984.bsky.social•83 days ago

I think sometimes it can be useful to solve the problem. If you're transmission constrained and next to a major constant load having baseload gen will probably make things easier to supply load even if inflexible? Plus protection and fault current and other stuff. Ymmv. Too much tho absolutely true

xiaowang1984.bsky.social•83 days ago

if you as a matter of national policy want to fit everything around intermittent renewables and make sure those things get paid first then yeah the baseload inflexible gen gets in the way of that. But to me thats a matter of policy. wind curtails easily but can't be conjured up

roobar99.bsky.social•83 days ago

Australia's national policy is to reduce emissions. This means that we need to shut down coal and minimise gas generation.
Renewables has proved to be most economic way to do this.
How about you address the reality of our success as defined by our ISP.
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp

xiaowang1984.bsky.social•83 days ago

Have you achieved your isp and are you on track for 82% by 2030. I've been hearing a lot of sad comments on reneweconomy bemoaning that you won't

doctorvive.bsky.social•83 days ago

I was under the impression that "clean firm" ran in 24/7 power applications.

l-bow.bsky.social•83 days ago

I think firm means the opposite of intermittent, i.e. not weather-dependant renewables. I don't think it has to be inflexible, but something like nuclear would be clean, firm, inflexible. Inflexible is good for matching to baseload. Firm dispatchable could be H2

frangsbo.bsky.social•83 days ago

Why do we particularly need dispatchable gen and why would gas be better than storage for that? Is peak load increasing more than average load or baseload? (Baseload properly meaning minimum load, perhaps seasonal)

l-bow.bsky.social•82 days ago

Storage can do the job of dispatchable generation, but we have to fill in for runs of several days with low winds. Storage is generally too pricey at that kind of scale, and pumped hydro is constrained by suitable land. Hopefully we can eventually use H2 or e-gas in place of methane for that role

frangsbo.bsky.social•82 days ago

I guess an interesting thing here is that it seems like the difference between 'baseline' and 'dispatchable' is shifting from a daily to weekly timeline to more of a weekly to seasonal timeline.

greenplanet.bsky.social•83 days ago

Exactly right, baseload is an outmoded concept, we should stop talking about it as if it's relevant to modern grids that use 5-minute markets.

l-bow.bsky.social•82 days ago

Sort of. Baseload is really just a description of the demand curve - the minimum level it falls to at night (/in summer). So we will always have a baseload. Whether it makes sense to design generation to run at max continuously, matched to baseload - that may be made outdated, particularly by wind

greenplanet.bsky.social•82 days ago

It's a description of how the grid used to work, and many claim still does, but modern grids are 5-minute markets and at any given moment your power is provided by dozens of generators, the real requirement is that supply meet demand & there are many ways to do that, e.g:

https://bsky.app/profile/davidosmond.bsky.social/post/3lch46cu3cc2l

greenplanet.bsky.social•83 days ago

Wind blows steadier at night up high where turbines live. Solar & wind complement each other both daily and seasonally.

With a national grid, you need surprisingly small amounts of batteries.

5-hour batteries are almost sufficient for Australia:

https://bsky.app/profile/davidosmond.bsky.social/post/3lch46cu3cc2l

vladgutman.bsky.social•83 days ago

This clearly says firm generation is needed, it just says baseload is not.

joshlyfry.bsky.social•82 days ago

See also the Queensland SuperGrid Blueprint. Largely RE grid with coal exit by 2035 and limited H2 firming for dunkelflaute.

Of course, there's a way to go to develop the H2 supply chain and storage capacity to run H2PG and a risk these plants are used as cover for expanded gas use.

lleopard11.bsky.social•82 days ago

Batteries are getting too cheap way faster than anticipated and solar and wind are producing way more power than we need. The baseload lie is being exposed.

lumijarvialeksi.bsky.social•83 days ago

I was too lazy to check how the German research academies modelled the generation costs of nuclear fusion baseload power 🤣 But I tend to agree with the big picture: there is huge potential in demand side flexibility and inflexible demand might just become increasingly uncompetitive in the future

lumijarvialeksi.bsky.social•83 days ago

But still, the energy system will remain complex and there will be a role for many types of supply and demand profiles. And in the end, the energy system has always been a product of political priorities. What is preferred will be given preference.

christiaan.bsky.social•83 days ago

Seems to me there’s no right or wrong in this debate. A baseload system will work and renewables + flexible storage system will work. But the later will probably win out because it’s faster and easier to deploy and modify.

doctorvive.bsky.social•83 days ago

let's hope so!

kudelka.bsky.social•83 days ago

And also has the small advantage of not contributing to catastrophic changes to the earth’s climate.

christiaan.bsky.social•83 days ago

Sure, but so to would baseload technology like “nuclear power plants, geothermal energy, natural gas power plants with CO2 capture, and nuclear fusion power plants.”

stefanurb.bsky.social•83 days ago

Fusion can have variants, which are residual and not base load power plants.

kudelka.bsky.social•83 days ago

Ah yes, magical technology that will “definitely save us”.

mclean.bsky.social•83 days ago

I thank Australia for running this experiment. I do not envy the Australian ratepayer for being subjected to it though.

roobar99.bsky.social•83 days ago

Much of this is being funded by investors.
We have a competitive generation market. This enables wind, solar and battery owners to make excellent profits. SA has led the way since the original battery in Hornsdale. https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-delivered-a-22-million-profit-in-2018-2018/

mclean.bsky.social•83 days ago

Who pays those profits?

roobar99.bsky.social•83 days ago

Domestic and industrial consumers.
We have a market economy in Australia.
Both generation and retail markets are competitive and market-driven. This encourages both investment and innovation on our National Electricity Market.
Start here. https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem

mclean.bsky.social•83 days ago

Cool, so what is the avg cost per kWh that a ratepayer pays?

I pay ¢15.9 / kWh USD total for electricity on a 73% nuclear grid. No accounting tricks with net metered solar

adamlippiatt.bsky.social•82 days ago

Just grid supplied on a TOU tariff in Western Australia averages AUD 27c (roughly same as your supply cost), but solar is supplied by grid at AUD 8c per kWh for 6 hours a day which I store and use during the other 18 hours. That’s USD$0.05, which is cheap home energy = USD$0.38 per gallon in an EV….

roobar99.bsky.social•83 days ago

I understand the need to pivot.
Comparing electricity prices across countries is tricky.
Our bills separate the cost of electricity (per kWh) and the cost of the network connection (per day).
Last month, I paid 18.38 cents/kWh (AUD).

glenne.bsky.social•83 days ago

and here is Melbourne Victoria Australia and of course these are in A$ cents.
other states are more expensive.
https://www.tangoenergy.com/energyplans?marketsegment=Home&postcode=3000&suburb=1&energy_type=electOnly&has_solar=0

cpm5280.bsky.social•83 days ago

Electric ratepayers who are paying less for power than they would have without the battery, I think.

roobar99.bsky.social•83 days ago

Aussies are investing in rooftop PV and batteries in large numbers.
Retailers are investing in new products to service these customers.
The benefits of these investments are now obvious.

joelmcourtney.bsky.social•83 days ago

Particularly as more (mostly) home batteries have wheels!

kilovar1959.bsky.social•83 days ago

You might find this post with links an interesting read https://substack.com/@kilovar1959/note/c-80255854?r=23kggy

rhubarbgrumble.bsky.social•83 days ago

But they are relying on green hydrogen in its place in that report. Which has an uncertain path.

climatenews.bsky.social•83 days ago

⚡️

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