Such a banger. The rain DAG has made its way around socials a few times, but check out the extremely lucid and incisive discussion section. - ThreadSky

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aecoppock.bsky.social • 10 days ago

Such a banger. The rain DAG has made its way around socials a few times, but check out the extremely lucid and incisive discussion section.

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rmkubinec.bsky.social•10 days ago

I do think it's important to note that the DAG isn't "bad." It might be useful to study the effect of rainfall on political outcomes. In that case, we could model at least some of these outcomes in reduced form. DAGs help us learn (even when we can't account for all of the factors with data).

jonmellon.bsky.social•10 days ago

Agree with this. I think the literature has the problem that weather is too influential on the social world not that it doesn't have an impact.

rmkubinec.bsky.social•10 days ago

Yes and we want rainfall to short circuit identification challenges rather than as a way to learn more about how the world works.

jonmellon.bsky.social•10 days ago

Exactly, we're always "wanting one weird trick" for causality but I think that's usually (RCTs actually are one weird trick) going to be at odds with the reality that you need to understand the system you're studying in a lot of detail to do good inference

jonmellon.bsky.social•10 days ago

I've also got these concerns with instruments like draft numbers for Vietnam (that try to say the whole effect is via education). Getting selected to go to Vietnam is a pretty big deal and probably has a lot of effects on people

francesconicoli.bsky.social•10 days ago

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