Has he been stupid? He made a bet in 2015. Certainly looks like in terms of U.S.-Russia, he's been spot on. His biggest miscalculation was February 2022. He underestimated UKR capabilities and what our IC added to the fight. But then again he really doesn't care about the lives he's losing. - ThreadSky

dmvogelmeer.bsky.social • 47 days ago

Has he been stupid? He made a bet in 2015. Certainly looks like in terms of U.S.-Russia, he's been spot on. His biggest miscalculation was February 2022. He underestimated UKR capabilities and what our IC added to the fight. But then again he really doesn't care about the lives he's losing.

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dmvogelmeer.bsky.social•47 days ago

And Trump is simply a tool (domestically, too), so I don't credit him with anything remotely strategic. You underestimate his recklessness.

jsargentr.bsky.social•47 days ago

I most certainly do not underestimate Trump's arrogance, stupidity, and likelihood to fail. I'm a goddamned New Yorker. And that's why Putin doesn't fucking win this way. A broken US isn't good for him or anyone. It's Pyrrhic, because you all go down, too.

dmvogelmeer.bsky.social•47 days ago

I like that because it fits in well with the law of unintended consequences.

jsargentr.bsky.social•47 days ago

LUC is just a fancy way of failing to think systematically and being stuck in a linear rut. I think Musk is damaged by video game thinking - if you grind at the objective, you win, no secondary effects from actions. Trump is just arrogant hubris.

dmvogelmeer.bsky.social•47 days ago

Systemically thinking leaves open the possibility of unknown unknowns. It's not linear thinking to accept that academic reasoning isn't going to provide all the answers in an International System still run by humans and their foibles, Kenneth Waltz not withstanding

jsargentr.bsky.social•47 days ago

I don't know what you mean by the second part. I'm not theoretically bound by anyone.

jsargentr.bsky.social•47 days ago

No smart actor would do this. If the US falls, it's cataclysmic for everyone.

He moved on Ukraine because he was losing the race with their prosperity. It was desperation. And he won't get out of Ukraine alive. His economy is cratering, infrastructure dying, soaring crime.

I'm not impressed.

dmvogelmeer.bsky.social•47 days ago

Will see what happens with sanctions. On the economy, Putin (because unlike Trump he's left it largely to the technocrats) he's played a bad hand extremely well. It's been awhile since I've been more plugged in to that issue, but as recently as last summer predictions of a crash remain unfulfilled

jsargentr.bsky.social•47 days ago

In a place like Russia, the moment of crash takes longer, but that makes it worse. I'm following the systemic economy, and it is getting bad. And US lifting sanctions won't help, because we're about to Find Out this month.

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