Nice opportunity for some EU sectors to regain lost ground though. - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 50 days ago

Nice opportunity for some EU sectors to regain lost ground though.

US choking its exploding clean tech market is just gonna mean it cedes the sector to China. Not great given the sector is going to be globally enormous

Comments

aphclarkson.bsky.social•50 days ago

A lot of the doomerism around EU manufacturing has hit an absurd pitch recently that is already leading to a swing back of the pendulum in a growing number of "you'll be surprised to learn that the Euros are actually good at.." pieces

aphclarkson.bsky.social•50 days ago

Maybe next time the narrative could stick to a more grounded "the Europeans have some big problems in these areas, but are doing OKish in others" direction of travel. But I guess catastrophism gets the clicks.

pwnallthethings.bsky.social•50 days ago

Things like energy can swing back more easily. I still reaaally don't like how irreplacable us tech is for the EU

neil-lewis.bsky.social•50 days ago

Exactly. If you want to replace your phone - your options are Google / Apple / Samsung or Indian / Chinese devises - there is no European option.

Likewise your browser or office suit or email / comms etc...

timoconnorbl.bsky.social•50 days ago

Tech is more replaceable than allies.

Particularly when a lot of what is described as “tech” is in reality software whose ultimate existence is as a means of using disinformation to tempt in members of the public in order to scrape their data to sell it.

timoconnorbl.bsky.social•50 days ago

If it’s a choice of AirBnB or Airbus, I’ll opt for the one society needs to keep working.

pwnallthethings.bsky.social•50 days ago

Right, but if there is a sudden need to not rely on US tech or their price unexpectedly skyrockets, Europe literally could not sustain it's core functions right now. A sharp loss of access to [Amazon AWS, Microsoft, Apple, Google] would be essentially impossible to manage

esemptius.bsky.social•50 days ago

Like this? 😂

fredmaynard.bsky.social•50 days ago

Try making a coherent narrative out of "we're good at clean tech, also making airliners"

timoconnorbl.bsky.social•50 days ago

“If it’s power in the air - making it or or moving it - buy European”.

timoconnorbl.bsky.social•50 days ago

On reflection, that one might actually have potential.

shuffleosint.bsky.social•50 days ago

The big issue vs non US markets will almost always be high labour cost. It puts a cap on growth in heavy industry sectors or non roboticised sectors.

mguillaumont.bsky.social•50 days ago

Les transports terrestres sont courts en Europe.

nmadden.bsky.social•50 days ago

A lot of it is projection about the weaknesses in the US that are starting to unravel.

ajlamesa.bsky.social•50 days ago

Compare the trajectory of Airbus vs. Boeing shares over the past four years.

mattadas.bsky.social•50 days ago

All we can hope for is the talent draining from the USA, probably won't happen but hope is what gets you through the day.

christianh.bsky.social•50 days ago

Some EU/transatlantic companies who were drawn in by IRA money are learning a hard lesson about political risk in the process (even if the EO illegally freezing IRA spending is overturned)

platinumretriever.bsky.social•50 days ago

And in 4 years not unlikely you get some normal Democrat again, but how long is that then gonna hold? Not great if the electoral outcomes are this erratic.

robertoartellini.bsky.social•50 days ago

Even if a normal Democrat would get elected again it's doubtful he will govern like the last Democratic President.

ianford.bsky.social•50 days ago

Agreed. Being a sensible, normie-Dem leader was punished by the voters. From now on it will probably be populist-lite policies, at best.

clivingsbkk.bsky.social•50 days ago

Look at Starmer in the UK.

alanbeattie.bsky.social•50 days ago

This is a point I frequently attempt to get across and will do so again this week but usually in vain. Trade diversion goes in multiple directions!

ianrobo.bsky.social•50 days ago

yes it does because whilst we may think the US dominates it;s shre of world trade steadily declines and how much are services etc (only got to look at tesla share price) compared to stuff people need or want

ianrobo.bsky.social•50 days ago

now this is where chatgpt is useful and massive gaps elsewhere to exploit

alanbeattie.bsky.social•50 days ago

It's also the share of imports though ie if they stop buying from China, who can sell to them? That share has also been falling but is higher than exports obvs.

ianrobo.bsky.social•50 days ago

oh sure but the thing is Alan the US economy has no spare capacity in labour or the political will to remake widgets for example !! hence why I think tariffs are being talked about, the only result from a china tariff is inflation, something trump can not politically afford to rise.

ianrobo.bsky.social•50 days ago

and china can see this and know that they can not be replaced for the mountains of chinese goods in walmart etc and heck MAGA caps !

alanbeattie.bsky.social•50 days ago

Right, so if they block Chinese exports, that's an opportunity for other exporters (potentially including the EU) to fill the gap since they don't have the capacity to do it themselves.

richardlander.bsky.social•50 days ago

Ørsted getting the last train out of San Fernando again today. Another straw in the wind turbine

indy.bsky.social•50 days ago

The fun bit is when it turns out that over the near term there is more to be gained economically from clean tech than from AI

stephaniemac.bsky.social•50 days ago

This could well be the biggest own goal ever

timoconnorbl.bsky.social•50 days ago

I could certainly see, eg, Siemens in windmills bearing this news manfully and driving on.

glostermeteor.bsky.social•50 days ago

Another interesting prism is what this means for Tesla. US stalling or reversing its energy transition means the demand for Teslas in particular will fall. Not good for Musk

barryjames.bsky.social•50 days ago

Don't worry he has twatter to cushion the blow

robertoartellini.bsky.social•50 days ago

And crypto scams

ianford.bsky.social•50 days ago

Sales in Europe and outside the US for vehicles made by the openly Nazi car-maker during 2025 will be interesting to see.

richardlander.bsky.social•50 days ago

Falling already in Blue states

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