This is an eg of phenomenon identified by my brilliant co-author Elisabeth Ivarsflaten nearly two decades ago: "reputational shields". In a world where anti-prejudice norms matter, parties who want to mobilise contentious views need a "shield" from accusations of prejudice 🧵 - ThreadSky

robfordmancs.bsky.social • 148 days ago

This is an eg of phenomenon identified by my brilliant co-author Elisabeth Ivarsflaten nearly two decades ago: "reputational shields". In a world where anti-prejudice norms matter, parties who want to mobilise contentious views need a "shield" from accusations of prejudice 🧵

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saltykat.bsky.social•148 days ago

Oh the irony.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•148 days ago

Elisabeth was interested in why most radical right parties fail (we don't hear about the many failures, which skews our understanding - an example of "survivor bias"). After building a dataset of all the successful and failed rad rt parties she looked at what separated the two.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•148 days ago

The answer? Radical right parties which succeeded in mobilising hostility to immigration or diversity nearly all started as parties which talked about *something else*. The failed parties were all parties who made hostility to imms/Muslims/diversity their main issue from the start

robfordmancs.bsky.social•148 days ago

To explain this, she coined the concept of a "reputational shield". Radical right parties will always be accused of violating norms of tolerance, inclusion, anti-racism etc. They need an answer to this accusation.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•148 days ago

"We are not agents of intolerance. We are an agrarian party/an anti-EU party/a regionalist party who happen also to be concerned about the impact of immigration" This is the reputational shield.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•148 days ago

We can see this play out in the 2010s with UKIP and the BNP. The BNP were a racist party built on the ruins of another racist party (the National Front). Despite efforts to detoxify, there was a low ceiling on their support. They were widely seen as unacceptable.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•148 days ago

UKIP, though, started as a party mobilising around *something else* - the EU - who moved onto the terrain of immigration in the mid 2000s after the EU accession. They were from the start seen as much more legitimate, and were able to mobilise opposition to immigration more effectively.

antireactionary.bsky.social•148 days ago

Geert Wilders did not fail. Anti-Islam and anti-immigration, from the start. No ambiguity or evasion, blunt language, open prejudice, criminal conviction for incitement, and ultimately the largest party.

hifilarry.bsky.social•148 days ago

Very interesting. Are people ashamed to be racially hostile but have a core belief / fear that can be leveraged?

slideman.bsky.social•148 days ago

Your theory sounds cynical ofc, but I’ve thought the same for a while. And if it’s true, it’s their behaviour that’s cynical rather than your theory.

antireactionary.bsky.social•148 days ago

Even if Badenoch does this, a more important factor is the emergence of 'ethnic conservative' minorities in high-immigration societies, as migrants initial alignment with 'sympathetic' centre-left parties erodes.

tadaaa.bsky.social•148 days ago

it's also an example of an increasing phenomenon of binary thinking

i.e. X can't be Y because [reasons]

that's simple logical nonsense

X can be Y and [reasons] can be also true too

jdportes.bsky.social•148 days ago

but interesting that the (IMO valid) argument Badenoch/others have made elsewhere (eg UKICE on ethnic minority attitudes, yesterday's Policy X report) that UK "ethnic minorities" are very diverse/heterogeneous across multiple dimensions, and generalisations are useless, directly contradicts this...

jdportes.bsky.social•148 days ago

..if you recognise heterogeneity of EMs, then *of course* black people like Badenoch, or Indian-ethnicity Buddhists like Braverman, can be prejudiced against Muslims! Of course some Indian people can have racist attitudes against Afro-Carribbeans. Etc, etc..

jdportes.bsky.social•148 days ago

[the implicit argument Badenoch is making here, that because she's black she can't legitimately be accused of being prejudiced against any ethnicity/faith, is *precisely* the one she and others would (IMO rightly) dismiss with contempt if made by "critical race theorists"]

iwasid.bsky.social•148 days ago

Would critical race theorists make that argument though?

jdportes.bsky.social•148 days ago

Some crude/lazy ones might -I agree it's not inherent. But that's my point. She's validating the worst possible arguments her critics would make!

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•148 days ago

"they can't paint me as prejudiced" in the sense of "nobody in this country knows anything about Nigeria"

recombobulating.bsky.social•148 days ago

They assume that everyone must treat identity as a binary flag that determines who is Good and who is Bad because that is how they use it.

angelmsattya.bsky.social•148 days ago

Hang on.
Does Braverman claim to be a Buddhist?

Every Zen master:

davidjorgonson.bsky.social•148 days ago

Some Zen leaders fully supported Imperial Japan, so.....

angelmsattya.bsky.social•148 days ago

They have a very long history in Buddhism. And yes, Imperial control and influence.
There are so many different Buddhist groups and practices.
Regardless, I struggle to see her as a bodhisattva.

nicki2910.bsky.social•148 days ago

Badenoch makes this so easy as a reputational shield for the Tory party , as she endorses their pull- up the drawbridge stance.

andersandersson.bsky.social•148 days ago

I think she is a bit off there (too). The Americans call it Uncle Tom and btw I mean Mrs B

jamessteel2008.bsky.social•148 days ago

The ethnic minorities that hate other ethnic minorities so they get ahead in politics, it’s happening a lot in America (hence the orange convict having ‘record’ support among black men 20%).

barleyscotch.bsky.social•148 days ago

There's a reason Alice Weidel is the public front person for Germany's AfD. And before her it was Frauke Petry.

profsob.bsky.social•148 days ago

You’ll find I have a paper extending Elisabeth’s theory to this phenomenon (hers was about programme not politicians). No paywall https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/1776BF1E85205FD7577E59E7F5D027F3/S175577392400002Xa.pdf/ethnic-minority-mps-as-reputational-shields-how-western-european-political-parties-respond-to-public-opinion-shifts-on-immigration-policy.pdf

craiggrannell.bsky.social•148 days ago

Great thread. I hope you’re also going to compile it and whack it on somewhere with some permanence.

beccaet.bsky.social•147 days ago

I have a friend who is a #Tory member & also (a) a person of colour & (b) of Muslim background. They find Badenoch racist.

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