Will be digging into the weeds of these results some more in coming days, here's one graph to ponder - average shares for Reform and Lib Dems by share of graduates in the wards. The education divide looms ever larger...
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Now, many of these are Con-LD areas where Lab are historically weak, but not all are. And historic weakness hasn't stopped the Greens moving past Labour. Perhaps if you keep telling socially liberal gradutes they aren't welcome in Labour, some of them start to act on it?
Yes. Underlying Reform support will probably be somewhat lower, but Labour have also been falling more in such areas, both among young/graduates and among Muslims. So if Reform post 20-25% in such places next year as they did this year, its another bloodbath
Yes, I noticed those Lancashire wards in particular showing Labour are yet to win over Muslim voters! London boroughs might be particularly brutal next year
We need Aussie style preferential voting as a matter of urgency. With 5 significant parties FPTP is going to throw up crazy results tha thave no relation to the popular will.
It has already, Labour have full power with 34% of the vote share. They claim a mandate, are they any different to the Tories? Always party (and power) before country.
We seem to be at last, yes. Starmer's stance on so many things, not least the EU, is pushing away the more liberal minded. His solution is more of the same but faster. Labour has already lost the next GE.
If the implication of looking at how graduates may have voted is that they are more intelligent or informed, how come the current Tory party is so high on this list? Or do graduates have exceptionally short memories?
Incredible stat. Labour have been so so fortunate compared to basically every other European soc dem party to have young people and graduates on side and they’re squandering it.
I remain convinced that the single biggest determinant of votes for Leave in 2016, and UKIP/Ref in elections, is final educational level. Age, class, region the underlying factor is how young they were when they ended education
Eg my generation (born 1950s) 80% left school at 16, 8% went to uni/poly
Unfortunately according to Rob's stats, and this is to your point, just 'a bit of education' is not enough. Will the UK electorate choose to go down the path of Scandinavian levels of tertiary level educational attainment? There's an English subculture of prideful ignorance swimming against us.
The Blair government tried to get uni levels up to 50% of school leavers. IIRC it’s currently about 30% - cf 8% in 1973 when I went up - but the Right have long demeaned it with “university of life” crap and bollocks about degrees in Morris Dancing or whatever. They want to suppress it.
I have long believed that the Tories have deliberately under funded and under supported education because it suits them to keep the population under educated. The same probably applies to Reform, philosophically anyway.
That's a descriptive claim not a causal claim. It describes the divide in voting behaviour by education level. It is not a claim about the causal impact of education.
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Lib Dem: 28.6
Con 25.9
Ref 19.8
Grn 13.4
Lab 12.7
In practice yesterday's results spell a very clear popular will: A PLAGUE ON ALL YOUR HOUSES!!!
You might say that. I couldn’t possibly comment.
I still come across some
BTW, he's a graduate.
https://bsky.app/profile/stevehyndside.bsky.social/post/3lo5hnunhtc2i
Close the universities
Eg my generation (born 1950s) 80% left school at 16, 8% went to uni/poly
OK, how's 'uneducated and racist'?