A week later and the GFS is still holding strong on a potential PV disruption later this month. Substantial eddy flux anomalies originating across Asia will push into the Stratosphere which should weaken the Polar Vortex heading into Mid-February.
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As it stands, the GFS is the most aggressive with a major SSW with a complete reversal of winds at 10mb over the North Pole. Furthermore, it shows a complete coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere suggesting that impacts would be felt at the surface.
GEFS and EPS are not as excited on the prospects of a full blown SSW but agree on the PV weakening from record strong to normal levels in a few weeks time. It should be noted that they tend to have a strong vortex bias so take it with a grain of salt.
Why does this matter? If we do get a strato/tropo coupled SSW, the 30 days following it tend to be quite cold and snowy across North America and Europe. A strong -NAO/-AO sets up allowing for polar air to filter into the mid-latitudes for extended periods of time.
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