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wxpatel.bsky.social

Someone who studied the weather University of Wisconsin AOS 🇨🇦🇺🇸

78 posts 1,223 followers 103 following

Posts 13 Comments 37

This tornado was probably the furthest north one was seen in either January & February east of the Rockies and in the top 5 furthest north for the month of December.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

The all-time snow-depth for Toronto is 67cm that was set during the winter of 1998-99. With 32cm on the ground currently and another 30-50cm on the way through this weekend, the city has a very good chance of nearing if not surpassing that total by storm's end.

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

The ECMWF Annual ENSO Plumes came out earlier this week and there is general consensus through the spring predictability barrier reaching neutral warm/weak ENSO+, but beyond that a whole assortment of possibilities exist as we head into the second half of 2025.

submitted 22 days ago • 1 comment

A week later and the GFS is still holding strong on a potential PV disruption later this month. Substantial eddy flux anomalies originating across Asia will push into the Stratosphere which should weaken the Polar Vortex heading into Mid-February.

submitted 27 days ago • 2 comments

I'd keep an eye on PV shenanigans as we head enter February. The GFS is showing substantial heat flux anomalies into the stratosphere during the early part of February. As a result the AM, looks to flip back negative and could couple with the troposphere later in Feb or March.

submitted 33 days ago • 1 comment

One of the goofiest snow depth maps in recent memory. Snow belts along the Gulf Coast, I-70, I-94, the two coasts and nothing in between.

submitted 37 days ago • 0 comments

Well that was a fun week at #ams2025 but now it’s time to catch up on some much needed sleep. 😴

submitted 42 days ago • 0 comments

What's different about this upcoming -NAO/-AO event is that there will be minimal connection to the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. The forcing for these teleconnection phases and subsequent cold/snow chances are fully forced by external influences (MJO/Tropical/etc).

submitted 60 days ago • 1 comment

3 weeks later and the state of the Pacific has changed drastically towards the colder. Not only have the surface SSTs fallen 1C in this time frame, but equally as notable is that the subsurface cold pool has substantially grown in just weeks with a connection to the surface.

submitted 66 days ago • 1 comment

Analogs centred about early January certainly favour a cold and active storm track across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Details on the potential impacts are still far too murky this far out but the pattern as a whole is quite favourable for wintry weather in those areas.

submitted 68 days ago • 2 comments

Unsurprisingly the Farmers Almanac will be wrong once again. Beating a dead horse here, but it should be said once again that it should not to be used for predictions of any sort. There is absolutely no basis to their forecasts.

submitted 74 days ago • 5 comments

For the next 10-14 days we will see the effects of a PT regime across the Pacific-North America region. With the jet stream extended (+EPO) and arching poleward (+PNA) the chances for a sustained cold air outbreak is slim.

submitted 80 days ago • 1 comment

Even though the SSTs across the Pacific don't reach La Niña criteria, a standing wave such as this is usually indicative of an atmosphere that is coupled to -ENSO. As a result, we will see the -IOD/-ENSO connection strengthen through the EWBs in the PAC and WWBs in the IO.

submitted 87 days ago • 1 comment