In a public forum at UCSD in 2011 where I was interviewer, Musk said he was "highly confident" SpaceX would be operating manned missions to Mars *by now*. (He said manned landings in 2026. Which means launch by now.) Meanwhile, the realities. What a guy. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/s... - ThreadSky

jfallows.bsky.social • 3 days ago

In a public forum at UCSD in 2011 where I was interviewer, Musk said he was "highly confident" SpaceX would be operating manned missions to Mars *by now*.

(He said manned landings in 2026. Which means launch by now.)

Meanwhile, the realities.

What a guy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/science/spacex-starship-launch-elon-musk-mars.html

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minerva1.bsky.social•3 days ago

Hard to have a cohesive society when wealthy and powerful men are not accountable.

vickihwright.bsky.social•3 days ago

And the NYT calls the results of these failed tests “mixed” because at least this one didn’t blow up and shower flaming debris over the Caribbean, before it spun out of control and burnt up and crashed into the Indian Ocean.

TBF: NASA had similar problems…in the 1950s!!

marspenny.bsky.social•2 days ago

Often lost when SpaceX Starships fail: (1) it’s experimental and expected to sometimes fail as they learn to improve; (2) their Falcon 9 & Heavy are incredibly successful, safe, and launched all the time; (3) their cargo and crewed Dragons are also safe and successful; (4) given the bElon Musk we…

marspenny.bsky.social•2 days ago

… have seen over the past year, we should be extremely concerned that the world’s richest man has, in Falcon 9, a reusable fleet of ICBMs. And with his access to the “President”…. This is very James Bond Villain stuff. (5) As much as I want to see humans on Mars in my…

marspenny.bsky.social•2 days ago

…lifetime (I am a retired Mars scientist), I do not want it to be a “NAZI” program. The US Govt should Defund SpaceX … yes, that would put a lot of NASA and DOD work on hold, but, it’s the least of the pain this country is beginning to endure. Defund SpaceX, do not buy Starlink service, …

marspenny.bsky.social•2 days ago

…do not buy a Tesla or Tesla stock.

kakistocracy-usa.bsky.social•3 days ago

Pretengineer Elmo musk is a con man.
$tsla fantasy claims go back years.

smokeoferin.bsky.social•3 days ago

A Texas expression applies here: all hat, no cattle.

ki7bda.bsky.social•3 days ago

Popular Mechanics has been promising flying cars soon since the 1970's.

vadaga.bsky.social•2 days ago

His rockets only travel to Mars through the use of 'hyperspace'

phanink.bsky.social•3 days ago

There’s a reason why every rocket designer since the ‘50s (?) has said single stage to orbit is a dead end. It’s physics and engineering & a bunch of stuff that ketamine kwedini isn’t interested in hearing about. Anyway, can’t wait to watch a bunch of YouTube videos about how SpaceX is “disruptive.”

hotskillet.bsky.social•3 days ago

Dude’s been failing up his entire life.

josephsabol.bsky.social•3 days ago

Stuff happens when daddy owns an emerald mine in S.Africa, eh?

hotskillet.bsky.social•3 days ago

Born on 3rd base, thinks he hit a triple.
He’s an epic mess.

golddustpoppy.bsky.social•3 days ago

Ha ha ha 😂

driver7.bsky.social•2 days ago

mwilbert.bsky.social•3 days ago

Musk has accomplished a lot, but he hasn't accomplished nearly as much as you would have thought if you had believed what he said. At this point I'm not sure whether he's just lying a lot or actually so optimistic that it amounts to being delusional. Also wonder if his brain is fried by drug use.

martinrayner.bsky.social•3 days ago

He also promised FSD... many times over.
https://www.wired.com/story/theres-a-very-simple-pattern-to-elon-musks-broken-promises/

seayorky.bsky.social•2 days ago

It won’t happen. Trump has spent more than Musk saved by a considerable sum. America is heading for bankruptcy.

gwchilly.bsky.social•3 days ago

He must be defrauding the United States government at this point. I’d like to see him in cuffs.

dmtcyt.bsky.social•2 days ago

i have absolutely no love for the guy. and I know you’re not saying this but: I do hope they’re able to get a person on Mars bc I’d like to be witness to that in my lifetime.

marciaea2z.bsky.social•3 days ago

Musk isn't a genius!The two men who created Teslas were very smart!Trump thinks Musk is a genius-he's exploding endless junk into our oceans!He destroyed important businesses with no clue of their importance.He's destroying America bc he has zero connection to it.Send Musk to Africa!

monstrousregiment.bsky.social•3 days ago

What has been the environmental impact? Why does no one report this?

alexcmers.bsky.social•2 days ago

Because every other rocket launch in history has the same impact and nobody gives a shit there.

torrleonard.bsky.social•3 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/torrleonard.bsky.social/post/3l6i7rouk262c

davehuntsman.bsky.social•3 days ago

C’mon, Jim; you know better. His method is to set goals for his team- & himself- that are essentially ‘not impossible’- & he really does then say, ok, let’s do that. And the result is he reinvigorated the entire commercial space industry planet-wide as well as the EV industry with that methodology.

jfallows.bsky.social•3 days ago

Understand the point.

But eventually, repeated "highly confident" predictions that are *wildly* off undermine people's faith in you as a forecaster.

I do not believe *anything* he says about promised future results. From Doge "savings" to "full self-driving" to people on Mars.

kakistocracy-usa.bsky.social•3 days ago

Nah. Without government welfare none of his businesses would exist.

prasad.bsky.social•3 days ago

in my line of work (and probably many others) the habit of over-promising and under-delivering would get you kicked out and blacklisted as untrustworthy

for me it's the greatest "sin" imaginable

cleanwindows.bsky.social•3 days ago

retail investors and hedge fund bros are degenerate gamblers tho

prasad.bsky.social•3 days ago

paper losses are easier to part with and shrug off than others

cleanwindows.bsky.social•3 days ago

goddamn right

mykidsmombb8.bsky.social•3 days ago

🙄

thatac.bsky.social•3 days ago

*wanders past, sets this on the table, keeps wandering*

andyo.bsky.social•3 days ago

Back when the government ran the rockets, they really didn't fail anything like this.

Privatization is a disaster.

alexcmers.bsky.social•2 days ago

Except they did fail. A lot.

marspenny.bsky.social•2 days ago

And buying commercial launch services has actually worked well for the last decade or so and saved US tax dollars. (And SpaceX is not the only available provider, but they have indeed been a successful pioneer. I’d like to see them fire Elon, though).

andyo.bsky.social•2 days ago

I don't know about that savings claim being true. We've paid Elon many billions.

In this interview, Musk says SpaceX has 90% of world space launches, which is a monopoly. So, no market forces at work and now he is in control of the contracting via DOGE. Corrupt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-elon-musk-weekend-interview/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc0ODI3MDI1OSwiZXhwIjoxNzQ4ODc1MDU5LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTV01DVjJEV1gyUFMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4OUU1Q0RCRDBERUU0QjNGQjVCOUMzQzcwOTBGODQ0MCJ9._GW9epbdeqbkChJzkG0dVbmxpnnFjUxmPAFUwrEUbG0

andyo.bsky.social•2 days ago

Wash Post did a story on how taxpayers made Elon rich.

Then he used his wealth to vandalize our government and democracy.

andyo.bsky.social•2 days ago

They had failures but many of them were post-launch. they got the rockets launched, overall. To some degree, it's part of space exploration.

But SpaceX keeps failing while not admitting to problems and giving us all this B.S. spin.

staciegregory.bsky.social•2 days ago

“Mixed record” these headlines are insane. The media has failed yet again.

ezwxbrief.bsky.social•2 days ago

Well Jim, he promised self driving cars 10 years ago…which is arguably easier than sending a person to Mars. That’s never happened with his cars. It’s all a ploy to garner sales so he can make billions more…because, of course, he needs billions more money to blowup more rockets.

seayorky.bsky.social•2 days ago

But it’s tax payers money he’s blowing up. Remember Musk has never invented anything. Bet the team he bought space X from are laughing.

ezwxbrief.bsky.social•2 days ago

He doesn’t care about taxpayers. You and I do, but he couldn’t care less.

coug444.bsky.social•3 days ago

If NASA ever tried such a trial and error approach to spaceflight it would be shut down immediately.

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