I like @vdeminstitute.bsky.social 's categorization of countries as liberal democracy, electoral democracy, electoral autocracy, and closed autocracy. The US under Trump has the risk of becoming an electoral democracy, but a slide into electoral autocracy is highly unlikely. What do you think? - ThreadSky

orcunselcuk.bsky.social • 45 days ago

I like @vdeminstitute.bsky.social 's categorization of countries as liberal democracy, electoral democracy, electoral autocracy, and closed autocracy.

The US under Trump has the risk of becoming an electoral democracy, but a slide into electoral autocracy is highly unlikely. What do you think?

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popovaprof.bsky.social•45 days ago

Sounds about right to me. Maybe not "highly", but unlikely

orcunselcuk.bsky.social•45 days ago

The reason why I said highly unlikely is mainly because he won't be able to change the rules of the game (term limits, bicameralism, federalism etc.) to systematically skew the playing field against Democrats.

popovaprof.bsky.social•45 days ago

I tend to agree w you. But otoh, I saw in passing that a GOP congressman already submitted a bill to get rid of term limits, so who knows how far the GOP will fall over the next 4yrs

osamet.bsky.social•45 days ago

Depends if you also use V-Dem’s approach to classifying countries under those headings. India is an “electoral autocracy” according to V-Dem. Why not the US?

orcunselcuk.bsky.social•45 days ago

Why not the US? Because the control of the presidency and the congress can easily shift from one party to the other. Democrats can take back the House in 2026 and presidency in 2028. There is no systematic repression against Trump's opponents, in contrast to India or Turkey.

osamet.bsky.social•45 days ago

Yeah, I tend to agree with you on the merits (though capture of the courts plus recent NC power grab example give me some pause). My point was more about coder bias in Regimes of the World. The coding is subjective.

osamet.bsky.social•45 days ago

Also the determination of which oppositions “can” or “can’t” retake power is highly subjective and often obscured in advance. I’m wary of claims of impossibility (or certain possibility) amidst a potentially imbalanced playing field

orcunselcuk.bsky.social•45 days ago

I agree with you on the sub-national variation of the regime dynamics in the US, but even in NC, the Democrats were able to regain the executive branch through free and fair elections.

osamet.bsky.social•45 days ago

And have its powers limited by an overzealous GOP legislature all while moving to overturn a Supreme Court race that the GOP-aligned candidate lost. But even that is beside the point, I think. The key is the uncertainty (plus the coder bias, but we’re not a different point now 😅)

osamet.bsky.social•45 days ago

Also should note that the “Regimes of the World” measure that employs those categories is considerably more controversial than V-Dem’s more standard Electoral Democracy Index, which doesn’t

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