I'd like to see more detailed analyses of how/how quickly massive job automation would happen. I think there's a risk of the planning fallacy - that you overrate the speed because many obstacles are non-obvious. Cf the fairly slow self-driving car rollout despite the tech being pretty good now. - ThreadSky

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stefanschubert.bsky.social • 52 days ago

I'd like to see more detailed analyses of how/how quickly massive job automation would happen.

I think there's a risk of the planning fallacy - that you overrate the speed because many obstacles are non-obvious.

Cf the fairly slow self-driving car rollout despite the tech being pretty good now.

Comments

jozyman.bsky.social•52 days ago

Agreed.

I also think there's a risk of underrating the speed because the jump from "not very good" to "superhuman" is comparatively tiny. Also because the moment agents are good enough they can scale massively (unlike cars).

stevebyrnes.bsky.social•51 days ago

Probably not the kind of “detailed analysis” you’re looking for but I casually discuss background considerations & intuitions in §3.2-3.3 of https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LJD4C7KAr64onL8fq/response-to-dileep-george-agi-safety-warrants-planning-ahead#3__Challenges_in_solving_AGI_related_problems_as_they_arise

Also, long back-and-forth w Matt Clancy ending here: https://x.com/steve47285/status/1796546304811868171

(This is about future AI not Jan 2025 AI)

intellectronica.net•52 days ago

The strong hypothesis is that integration / implementation will be a lot faster and easier than we’re used to because AI will do most of that work too. Don’t know if that will prove true but if it does it’s possible that we’ll go through rapid automation.

sharmake.bsky.social•51 days ago

Admittedly, a lot of the self-driving car story is a story of liability being ruinous to the companies if they make any mistake, and thus you need perfection, or close to it, because you cannot offload the liability to the customer if they use the self-driving part.

damonthedemon.bsky.social•51 days ago

How about instead of self driving cars, their liability, faults and safety, you give a human being a job. How about that.

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