Why are we not seeing massive sustained opposition to democratic backsliding in the US? Do opposition leaders have too high opportunity costs (many are quite rich), coordination problems (no central leading figure), lack of a unifying ideology,..
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cognitive dissonance (can't happen here), is social media demobilizing, or what is it? Poland, Hungary, Israel and many other countries can do this, so why not in the world's riches and (by some accounts) oldest democracy?
A series of things:
1) simply not grasping what the message needs to be
2) genuine fear. Remember politicians homes have literally been attacked.
3) no significant rallying figure.
And finally
4) an incredible arrogance in a two party system that they “deserved the presidency on moral grounds”
Note that demonstrations all failed in those three places, as they also failed in BLM. More concretely, most Americans don't understand at all what's happening, or support it in the abstract.
This is too glib, but: I think it's largely a combo of lack of awareness and lack of concern. Most people pay little attention to politics and political news; a lot of the ones who do are basically fine with what's happening; and the ones who aren't fine with it are pretty fragmented.
I think the two-party oligarchy is different here. Democratic Party isn't really an opposition party, it's the waltzing partner of the GOP. If we had PR, I think you'd have a few better-organized leftist forces now that could be leading charge. But we've got the Horse-Race Show instead.
I mean, when this is what the opposition party offers up when handed the biggest megaphone in this moment, it becomes clear that they are so entangled in the system that they are utterly incapable of responding to its current expression in any effective way.
Some of the lack of opposition may also be strategic. Prominent voices within the Democratic Party wants to "roll over and play dead" and let the Republican party run the country into the gutter before they start go on the offensive. Whether this is a smart approach is another discussion.
Yeah, it might work under two assumptions 1) US institutions will hold and elections will remain free and fair, and 2) that American voters are rational and assign blame to the Republicans. Both assumptions are... highly questionable.
If anything, I think the latter is less likely to hold than the former. But it is also a question of whether Trump will continue to go gung-ho, or whether he will moderate himself when he directly hurts his constituents (like the signals about rolling back tariffs today indicate).
To start: Elite capture of opposition party, hyper militarized police state that has carte blanche to kill citizens, fragmented dis/info spheres with news orgs willing to normalize each step. It will probably take huge economic downturn to break people out of their patterns of normalcy.
To sustain: huge volume of people to organize across huge swaths of land (and tech/social media corps arent necessarily in favor of this) high political polarization such that those who are aware and dissatisfied are relatively few at the moment, serious fatigue from overwork and covid trauma.
It's massively frustrating and I don't know any solution but to keep plugging away at raising awareness and hope someone is willing to undertake propaganda of the deed.
The dem party response to pro-Palestine protests was also very discouraging & informative; over a year of peaceful protest against naked genocide & they wouldn't even permit a Palestinian speaker on their stage. many people are alienated from the closest thing we have to an opposition party.
People are also terrified of the surveillance state.
They know what they must do but are betting they are safer if they fly under the radar.
Lack of media coverage for existing protests and social media not showing it makes it seem like nobody is acting and it actively discourages more action
Personally I am disgusted by them because they explicitly allowed human rights backsliding. I am a trans man& veteran & they seem totally willing to sacrifice us to appease the tyrant.
They’re so stupid that they don’t know appeasement doesn’t work
I guarantee any politician with a vision and widespread populist appeal who tries to hold establishment dems accountable or give people what they want will continue to be squashed & labeled extremist
Even as they fecklessly watch democracy be destroyed in pink shirts
I know if I (as a trans man) were sent to prison for protesting, where I am sure I would be raped to death, there would be not a single peep from my representatives.
They have made it clear they don’t give a fuck about me or any other minority (see BLM backlash) or any other human rights
The Democrats are a captured opposition and the government has spent decades arresting or assassinating anyone (e.g. Black Panthers, MOVE, etc.) who poses any genuine threat.
It took Slovenia roughly a month in 2020, and that is a much smaller place where basically everybody knows everbody. And then it took us two years to get rid of them.
It’s building, but partially an elites problem. Grassroots base here (and particularly organizing infrastructure) is deeply exhausted & disillusioned after years of sustained work & then intra-party opposition (spec. Gaza). Need grass tops to prove they’re actually serious about resistance and lead.
There is way more protest happening than is easy to observe because media are totally preoccupied with WH. Many are sounding alarms. But the establishment is generally unwilling to acknowledge & absorb that backsliding is happening. They think his policies will fail and they have faith in midterms.
Thanks Erica, good to know! I hope these protests will soon reach the media. I have seen some relating to DOGE (in DC and elsewhere). Btw. are you aware of any US-based anti-Trump protest tracker/counter ongoing at the moment?
Yes, I was following this during Trump 1 and covid/BLM, but (erroneously) thought it had concluded for some reason. Great resource and more important than ever!
Drove by a small anti-gop protest outside the federal courthouse in Fargo yesterday. Had no idea it was happening until I passed it. But they're happening everywhere in fits and starts.
If media doesn't report, then coordination failure is more likely. A _public_ signal to start is important, so that everyone knows that everyone know etc.
As someone studying backsliding/autocratization outside the US context, I am extremely grateful that @chenoweth.bsky.social has been working on these issues here at home for a long time. I know I speak for many.
While it certainly isn't enough, a big issue is that there are protests, they just don't get media attention. That isn't too surprising since media attention is highly dependent on the elite (and they don't seem to care), and that most social media is owned by actors supportive of the Trump regime.
"Carville’s essay called for the Democratic Party to make a “strategic political retreat,” advising members of his party to “roll over and play dead” while public support for the Trump administration dwindles, before then stepping back into the fray."
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1) simply not grasping what the message needs to be
2) genuine fear. Remember politicians homes have literally been attacked.
3) no significant rallying figure.
And finally
4) an incredible arrogance in a two party system that they “deserved the presidency on moral grounds”
Social media maybe?
It’s also early. When it warms people will go outside and most will stay there. Things are building but it takes time to coordinate.
Candidly, I’m waiting for a similar inciting event now. It will happen, and I don’t think it will be long.
The outliers (e.g., Crocket, Raskin, Frost, Green) are interesting.
Dem voters & those who had civil service or nonprofit jobs are panicking, but are rudderless
Anyone deemed “extreme left” (wanting universal healthcare) are iced out by establishment dems.
They know what they must do but are betting they are safer if they fly under the radar.
Lack of media coverage for existing protests and social media not showing it makes it seem like nobody is acting and it actively discourages more action
Personally I am disgusted by them because they explicitly allowed human rights backsliding. I am a trans man& veteran & they seem totally willing to sacrifice us to appease the tyrant.
They’re so stupid that they don’t know appeasement doesn’t work
Even as they fecklessly watch democracy be destroyed in pink shirts
I am completely disgusted
They have made it clear they don’t give a fuck about me or any other minority (see BLM backlash) or any other human rights
Their organizing stops at making cute signs & standing on a corner.
Any meaningful demands are never made. There is no strategic plan.
Minorities are tired & tired of being betrayed even after doing the heavy lifting every time
"Carville’s essay called for the Democratic Party to make a “strategic political retreat,” advising members of his party to “roll over and play dead” while public support for the Trump administration dwindles, before then stepping back into the fray."
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/02/democrats-sanders-playing-dead-00206894