I would have two questions:
Why the euro?
What benefit would there be to Europe?
Until that can be answered, then the default is going to be the treaties, which indicates that commitment to euro is essential at the *start* of any accession process.
A response 🧵
Why the euro?
What benefit would there be to Europe?
Until that can be answered, then the default is going to be the treaties, which indicates that commitment to euro is essential at the *start* of any accession process.
A response 🧵
Reposted from
David Henig
I suspect a UK serious about rejoining the EU would be able to negotiate one opt out, and that would keeping the pound. But to note, that would mean no rebates...
None of which is happening any time soon anyway, so almost certainly a purely theoretical discussion.
None of which is happening any time soon anyway, so almost certainly a purely theoretical discussion.
Comments
Europe considers the euro among its finest achievements and it is acquis like everything else. The reality is the only reason is that *some Britons don't like it*.
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Is that the case with the euro?
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- Each additional currency in the SM is a tax on trade and limits SM effectiveness and increases prices to consumers and B2B
- Sterling is a rival reserve currency
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- The City is a major financial centre which in the past promoted and benefitted from instability in the euro, while benefitting from its position inside the SM
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- UK adopting the euro would obviously be good for the euro and confidence.
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It would be like the US saying to California to have its own currency.
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We can’t join because the UK previously wouldn’t and won’t (because, reasons).
Having a half-in, half-out UK as a semi-member again would, however, be a rather big problem for the EU.
So, until the UK is not just prepared to, but enthusiastic to, join all of the EU, it's less of a serious candidate for membership than even Turkey.
A staggering amount? Yes, absolutely.
As much as on the Brexiter side? Absolutely not.
Unfortunately, a lot of people, both deserving and undeserving, are going to experience pain until that happens.
https://open.spotify.com/track/4Bf0pPhF1KHqnIEensWMuN?si=CX_4gjMjTHGgrdymYOGFgw&context=spotify%3Asearch
Looking forward to Scottish €
Brown and Blair the only PMs to conditionally advocate joining the euro set UK conditions for joining which were also never met.
It is more likely that the tests were a means to reconcile the treasury with Number 10, but to keep the option open as Blair wanted.
Blair was more eager to join, but Brown became less so over time.
Fear is to do with the 1992 ERM crash and the Greece bailout.
Among politicians it’s probably to do with monetarist controls.
It was almost as if banknotes HAVE to have a picture of the monarch on them.
Which ignores the fact that...
And apart from 1 (maybe 2) commemorative issues, no monarch has appeared on Scottish notes either.
If a country wants to be in the EU, it should have a positive mindset towards us. Talking about op-outs is not that
Until there is a positive mindset it is no use talking about the UK rejoining nor the Euro.
Schengen.
The lot.
🇪🇺
(This may not be my most reasonable ask for Britain getting back in the EU.)
'If A country..', '...a positive mindset towards US'
The UK people who (like me) want to join the EU must first accept we are just a third country with no special rights or privileges over others wishing to join. Humility is important.
Respect however is essential.
Since 1979 we elected politicians knowing that they used EU (EC) as a punchbag to gain votes: We didn't educate ourselves about the SM or CU: Too many of us believed Farage's lies about Turkey rather than do our own research.
Sorry EU.
We reconcile and move on.
Spain hasn't suffered from Brexit. Arguably it has benefitted. Tourist numbers are up to the highest level of any country anywhere.
A few retirees spending 85 instead of 95 days makes close to zero difference.
I spent some time a couple of years ago in the high interior of Andalucía, and there were tourists in every little village.
Ultimately, water and construction pollution must be worries?
Not until the UK has thoroughly reformed and eradicated its sense of entitlement/exceptionalism.
That is likely to take a generation.
The UK is not nearly as important to the EU or individual MSs as it seems to believe.
Brexit has been dealt with…
Along with the currency issue, it's a neoliberal, anti democratic institution.
(I know you never asked, but anyway)
However on political level they would expect a commitment
So U.K. would have to politically commit but I guess somehow maintain the conditions preventing them from joining the euro
Okay.
“All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'.”
But it sounds like once voted into the EU, there isn’t a fixed time line
I hope it's in that position soon of having to decide. .
The euro is just a permanent currency peg.
Denmark is pegged to the euro. Not permanent. As the Danish finance minister said at the time, when you're handcuffed to a gorilla, you don't throw away the key
Without a say.
Also Denmark is a member.
You can’t compare a hostile none member to a MS.
Right now, the UK would be nowhere near meeting the criteria.
(arguably, it would be no meet the Copenhagen Criteria on the euro, even)
Agreed re the criteria.
It’s far easier to do this nowadays as there are far more tradable instruments to do so, but each adds most cost and more complexity
One of our biggest corporate customers when I 1/
No company wants to gamble with unnecessary currency risks
Banks in the city trade…what currencies or instruments they trade in is irrelevant, London is and has always been the centre of FX and OBS trading and GBP is a very small part of that nowadays
The EU is never going to allow the CoL to be as powerful as before. Not even if the UK joins the EU after a few decades on the outside.
Today we use the word, balles, for the €.
Norway is obviously an oil state, so it's not comparable.
The reality is, the 'flag-waving patriots that felt the UK's identity was under thrat from the EU,' have ensured those things that identified us, will be lost over time!
It might take a decade or two, but it's coming.
The work to persuade people on the euro has to be done now.
You, as a (reformed?) eurosceptic, would you be in favour or against joining given that?
Whether it’s enough to offset simplified trade by joining the euro I don’t know.
I suspect the British will 'feel' the loss of sterling as a reason to stay put.
Awaiting for the unicorn that makes Brexit work. 🙃
Scotland seems quite attached to sterling too, judging from Indy1
As regards the Euro, there are currently 6 member states that don't meet the convergence criteria with no dates set for them to do so