2witches2come.bsky.social
Your resident nonbinary Jewish thirtysomething. Lesbian, Chicagoan, former Pennsylvanian & nonprofit worker. Aspiring professional bellydancer.
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The fucking audacity. I have no words.
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I feel disconnected from reality a lot lately because I have all of these attachments to rules and systems and good government that seem not to matter to anyone else. Like am I the only person who thinks it’s bonkers that Musk could buy the election and then threaten the president because of it?
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nO
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here's the Semafor piece
www.semafor.com/article/06/0...
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Democratic electeds should lead. Not use message testing. Speak from the heart, create conflict, drive attention, and change the polls.
The way to fix this is to get Schumer and Jeffries to tell their members to do it.
But those two are locked into tested kitchen-table status quo messaging.
/end
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In short: Setting political strategy based on message testing is bad. These tests don't show what "works" or what is "effective." They show what ppl in front of a computer self-report a short time after seeing a handful of messages.
That's not how persuasion works, and it doesn't acct for media.
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Finally, one data detail:
Note that the effect is measured as "94th percentile". That's a normalized measure. Presumably this shifts support for Democratic candidates by what, 10 or 15%? Less?
Why show the normalized percentile measure and not the raw effect size?
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And that's the status-quo Dem data quantbrain loop.
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Together, this shows the strategy.
Schumer and Jeffries are comfortable doing their usual thing: running on kitchen table issues. So they run some message tests and find the Medicare and Medicaid messages "work" best.
They tell Dems to talk about that — and crucially, not about other things.
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Third, why? Medicaid is vital, shld't we be talking about it?
Yes. But we shld ALSO talk about Musk corruption, Trump the corrupt criminal, and immigration. Testing may show them ineffective.
But per @gelliottmorris.com, media effects can mean they ARE effective.
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Second note: the memo came from the DSCC and DCCC - the Senate and House leadership PACs.
That means this memo tells you what @schumer.senate.gov and @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social want.
They control those PACs. And this one was prepared for public release. So they want us to see it.