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acemaxx.bsky.social
macro economics, charts, books, short interviews, Alumni University of St. Gallen, Switzerland https://acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/
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GS economists also expect the #Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, which should provide an additional lift to the #gold price as non-interest-bearing assets start to look more attractive relative to bonds, chart @GoldmanSachs

GS’s increased forecast is underpinned by higher-than-expected demand for #gold from CBs, which have been increasing their reserves of the #commodity since the freezing of #Russian CB assets in 2022, following #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine - chart @GoldmanSachs

#AI economy’s massive vulnerability - #subsea #cables channel data and power, but they face escalating risk, chart @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/20/a...

re: #Germany 's new upcoming government To defeat the far right, we must adopt an anti-fascist economic policy @isabellamweber.bsky.social - chart @TheNation.com www.thenation.com/article/econ...

A new (appealing) #book “The Measure of Progress” – Counting What Really Matters by @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social Apr 01, 2025 @princetonupress.bsky.social press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Heiner Flassbeck: The task of the new #German Govt is basically simple: telling the people to realize that #savings are not the solution, but the problem. And #European #debtbrake must also be removed www.relevante-oekonomik.com/2025/02/28/k...

(preliminary) #Germany #inflation CPI in Febr 2025: 2.3%Y, 0.4%M, Note: inflation (bumpy) is not sticky, but the #stagnation of #German economy, chart @destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

US #inflation expectations measured by UST #breakeven rates, chart @BloombergTV live

10y UST yields drop amid growth angst – and increased tariff talk from US President Donald Trump is adding to anxiety, chart @markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US stocks lagged behind global peers in the first 2-months of 2025, breaking a trend that has characterized much of the last 15y - #Chinese and European #equities have done particularly well, up 14% and 8% respectively compared with US stocks so far this year (as of Febr 26), chart @GoldmanSachs

(A sad showdown via bullying television) The clash in #OvalOffice – #Ukraine vs #Russia (forceful powered by the US)

Trump 2.0 and US politics - #impoundment ... fiscal policy: OUT – fiscal autocracy: IN, chart @financialtimes.com Lillian Tett www.ft.com/content/880d...

#ElonMusk and his cost-cutting US #DOGE Service team have been on a mission to trim Govt largesse. Yet Musk is one of the greatest #beneficiaries of the taxpayers’ coffers, chart @washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com/technology/i...

Over the years, #ElonMusk and his businesses have received at least $38bn in Govt contracts, loans, subsidies and tax credits, chart @washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com/technology/i...

Trump’s policy could be described as #nationalcapitalism - statements on #Greenland and #Panama show how close he is to the most aggressive, authoritarian and extractivist forms of capitalism, chart Thomas Picketty @surplusmagazin.bsky.social www.surplusmagazin.de/email/116962...

10y UST yield – I’m young enough to remember that fiscal-hawks were crying wolf a couple weeks ago: #BondVigilantes would discipline the Govt by demanding higher yields, chart @markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#Employment Expectations Indicator #EEI turned down in both areas (EU: -1.2pts to 98.1, #euroarea: -1.5pts to 97.0). Both indicators score below their long-term average of 100, chart #EU European Commission economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-for...

US is stepping up #egg imports and boosting support to #chicken farmers, chart @economics www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#negative #swap spreads are an indication of unusual financial conditions, where #German Govt bonds are seen as safer or more attractive than the #swap market, due to economic concerns and #ECB policy, chart @ven_word www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

2y inflation swaps: USD (blue line) > EUR (green line), chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/inve...

Following a strong 2024, #HedgeFunds have started 2025 off with solid returns: US equity long/short funds have returned +3%ytd, supported by the broader market and favorite long positions, chart @GoldmanSachs

US equity markets: AAII Bull/Bear spread: The most #bearish (40 points) #sentiment since 2022, chart @bloomberg.com TV live @Daniburgz

Global #equity risk premiums, chart @MorganStanley

The media discussion of the #neutral rate deviation from the policy rate, encouraged by central bankers' communication, is a dangerous red herring that should be dropped altogether, chart @vmrconstancio.bsky.social Vítor Constâncio vtor.substack.com/p/europes-pr...

#euro area - @ECB is expected to cut rates on March 6th – and then what? - chart @ING_Economics

#ElonMusk is trying to slash US federal spending, but he has received more than $38bn in aid, funding and Govt orders over 20y on behalf of his #Tesla car company (nearly $15.7bn) and his #SpaceX aerospace company (around $22.6bn), chart @lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/a...

#Swiss GDP in 4Q2024: 0.2%Q, 1.5%Y … This is one reason why #SNB does not want to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, chart @SECO_CH www.seco.admin.ch/seco/de/home...

25% #tariffs on the #EU --- A #trade war is like a real #war except instead of sending troops to other countries, you just make it more expensive for your own citizens to buy things ….

It is worth noting that, b/c of the age profile of the resident US population and the age profile of immigrants, a zero- #immigration scenario would have more dramatic impacts on the #laborforce than on the overall population, chart @JPMorganAM

#economics A new #book -- The Real Economy – History & Theory by @_jonlevy Jonathan Levy Apr 22, 2025 @princetonupress.bsky.social press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

#Bundesbank’s “revaluation accounts” record unrealized gains from the revaluation of assets, particularly: FX holdings, #gold reserves, securities and financial instruments … chart @bundesbank

German #inflation is not sticky, it’s the #German economy’s #stagnation which is stubborn, chart @Bundesbank (Note: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel assures that #Bundesbank 's work is not at risk). www.bundesbank.de/de/presse/re...

It is the first time since 1979 that deutsche @Bundesbank #German CB has reported a balance sheet loss: €19.2bn (ca. 0.5% of German GDP), chart @Bundesbank www.bundesbank.de/de/presse/re...

(just beautiful and riveting) I must have one of those new designed awesome basketballs! #basketball -- #Molten unveils #FIBA #EuroBasket 2025 official game ball, chart @eurobasket www.fiba.basketball/en/events/fi...

#gold has exhibited strong price momentum, even with a relatively strong USD, chart @MorganStanley

World Economic Policy #Uncertainty, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/us/g...

With the imminent threat of #trade wars, Trump’s #Washington is now the biggest source of disruption and discord, chart @bpolitics www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

(Say what?) US President Donald Trump claims that “EU was formed to screw the US” – Thus, 25% #tariffs on the #EU …