alexanderkhara.bsky.social
CEO, Centre for Defence Strategies (Kyiv)
Ukrainian Greek/ native of Donetsk/ proponent of Europe Whole and Free and at Peace with Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia as its integral part
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I’m afraid those guys drug us into 1939.
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The truth is, Trump wants a reset with putin — and he will push for it, no matter the cost to Ukraine.
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He naively assumes that any "treasure" saved would somehow benefit ordinary russians, which is simply not the case. He also claimed that the war “should have ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts”. But “sincere and good faith” are not words that describe putin.
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Finally, by saying that “the blood and treasure that both Ukraine and russia have been spending in this war would be better spent on the needs of their people”, Trump draws a false equivalence between the aggressor and the victim.
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Thirdly, the russians want a deal over the Black Sea — one that would allow them to resume disruption of SLOC, as they have done in the Sea of Azov since 2015 and in the Black Sea since 2022. It was UA naval drones that forced open UA Black Sea ports and drove the BSF into the NE corner of the sea.
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UA been successfully targeting the RU oil infrastructure that putin needs to run the war and secure inflow of hard currency to support his war effort. UA drone & missile attacks have reportedly knocked out around 10% of RU refining capacity. I fail to see how this is in any way a fair exchange.
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Although Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure recently, these strikes have not been as damaging as they could have been if carried out during winter.
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Secondly, there will be what is termed an "energy and infrastructure ceasefire", meaning the russians will continue to target Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones without it being considered a breach of the ceasefire. In other words, Ukrainian civilians will continue to be killed.
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#putin demanded the surrender of these troops. However, there has been no such encirclement of significant Ukrainian forces there.
So, the land war will not be affected by any ceasefire.
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The dam might break, unleashing a flood of territorial wars across the world.
Trump would bear the primary responsibility for this disastrous outcome.
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No Ukrainian government would ever accept such terms.
It also raises the question: how many of the 100 nations that voted for the 2014 UN General Assembly resolution affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity would change their stance?
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and the 2018 Pompeo Declaration on non-recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea), but it would also open a Pandora’s box worldwide. China, for instance, would likely interpret this as a green light to seize Taiwan.
This would utterly destroy the United States’ international credibility.
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Such a move would not only violate long-standing principles of international law and diplomatic tradition (including the 1940 Welles Declaration on non-recognition of the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states, the U.S. reversal of Iraq’s illegal annexation of Kuwait in 1991,
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or when Merkel pushed for Nord Stream 2 instead of punishing russia for the illegal annexation of #Crimea and a proxy war on #Donbas.
Are these people able to learn something at all?
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She believes "understanding what #putin is doing, putting yourself in his shoes, is not wrong.” “We must allow discourse about #russia's interests," she argues as if she hadn’t served those interests after russia invaded #Georgia, and instead of punishment it got Partnership for Modernisation;
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The same idiots who failed to deter #russia in 2014 and did nothing to strengthen #Ukraine before 2022, thus green lighting russia’s full-scale invasion.