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arishisays.bsky.social
Chief Gif Strategist. Have more questions than answers.
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Short thread on Waller's speech today. He set the bar for a skip in December is high! He gave three reasons 1 Rates are still above neutral 2 Inflation though not moderating, shows no risk of reaccelerating 3 Labor market has cooled but remains strong and the Fed doesn’t want it stay like that

submitted 96 days ago • 1 comment

R star estimates diverging from Trend growth. Really just looks like an over-fitted regression gone when the model is tested on out of sample data 😂

submitted 96 days ago • 0 comments

Here goes my first thread on Bluesky - we have a new Treasury Secretary! Large rally in bonds to begin the week as the drama behind "who will sign the next batch of US Dollars" comes to an end. We will soon be carrying Scott Bessent's autograph in our pockets. 1/8

submitted 103 days ago • 2 comments

WSJ: In Potential Arrangement, President-Elect Would Select Warsh to Lead Treasury Until Jerome Powell's Term as Fed Chair Ends, and Scott Bessent to Lead NEC Before Replacing Warsh at Treasury So Fed Chair: Powell -> Warsh Treasury Sec: Warsh -> Bessent Not the worst picks Trump could have made.

submitted 107 days ago • 0 comments

Friends on the sell-side, as they finish their 2025 annual outlook knowing fully well that none of their assumptions will survive the first quarter 😂 👇

submitted 110 days ago • 1 comment

Hello 🌎

submitted 111 days ago • 1 comment